Iran in Turmoil: Domestic Crisis and Global Repercussions
By Caroline Thomas – Rise to Peace Fellow
The Islamic Republic of Iran is currently experiencing one of the most significant periods of civil unrest in decades. Beginning in late December 2025 with protests over declining economic conditions, the turmoil has evolved into a nationwide challenge to Iranian political order, and protestors have demanded systemic change. The uprisings have drawn international attention, increasing diplomatic tensions and threats of external intervention. This report examines the components of the unrest, analyzes its further security implications, and situates it among concurrent global crises, including recent developments in Venezuela and the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
The current wave of protests began on December 28, 2025, and was initially driven by widespread economic hardship, including rapidly rising inflation, food and fuel prices, and the collapse of currency values [1]. Demonstrations began in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar [2], an urban hub that is the economic epicenter of Iran, housing the world’s largest covered market. As the focus of the demonstrations have evolved, protests have now broadened across all 31 Iranian provinces and spread to diverse social groups, including students, workers, and professionals. This marks one of the broadest demonstrations since the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement [3] that followed the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022.
Iranian authorities have responded to the unrest by deploying police, Basij militia, and Revolutionary Guard units to attempt to suppress demonstrations. These forces have been authorized to use lethal force against protestors, including live ammunition, causing the death toll to rise to over 500 deaths [4] and more than 10,000 arrests, as of the writing of this piece. Iranian authorities challenge these figures, and frame the unrest as violent “riots” in an attempt to justify the use of force. However, exact casualty figures are difficult to confirm due to the nationwide internet and communications blackout imposed by the Iranian regime. The Iranian foreign minister claims the chaos has “come under total control,” [5] but as the demonstrations enter the 16th day and very few videos from Iran emerge on social media, it is difficult to say whether or not the authorities’ response has actually had an effect on stunting the momentum of the movement.
Analysis
Domestic Drivers: The core driving factor of the protests are deeply-rooted economic grievances, including inflation, poverty, unemployment, and the collapse of the national currency (the rial). The sentiment among protesters is that these ongoing economic hardships are symptoms of broader political dysfunction and systemic corruption in the Iranian regime as a whole [6]. As a result, current demonstrations are aimed more at targeting the theocratic structure rather than single policies or individual Iranian officials, rendering them leaderless and decentralized. The discontent is broadly based and spread among a wide group of societal members, including professionals, ethnic minorities, urban youth, and workers.
Regime Legitimacy and Narrative: The Iranian leadership has responded with a reframing of the ongoing narrative, with officials claiming that the unrest is actually a foreign-backed plot [7] by the United States and Israel to further incite instability and justify external intervention. This framing of the ongoing crisis demonstrates the long-standing regime discourse that internal dissent is a part of a broader war waged by countries against Iran.
Security Implications: The rapid spread of the intense protests in Iran poses direct and significant risks to domestic stability and security in the country. The scale of participation across wide social groups suggests a lack of consensus around the Iranian regime’s legitimacy. Additionally, the use of lethal force, arrests and detentions, and threats of harsh punishments could further radicalize demonstrators and deepen social grievances against the Iranian regime, which could create conditions for prolonged unrest.
International Security: Foreign governments are monitoring Iran closely. The United States, under President Trump, has announced that it is weighing “very strong options” in response to the uprising in Iran, including military strikes, cyber operations, increased sanctions, or support for communication networks moving into Iran [8]. This raises the concern for a direct US-Iranian confrontation, as Iran has warned that any external military intervention will result in retaliation strikes against US and Israeli bases and targets. Unintended escalation between major powers significantly affects international order and stability.
Humanitarian Concern: The nationwide internet and phone blackout in Iran severely limits both information and resource flow, and inhibits independent verification of events, including death tolls and arrest logs. International monitoring is hampered, which often results in populations struggling to organize, seek assistance from international bodies, or share evidence of abuses and ongoing activities within the country.
Global Context: Venezuela
The unrest in Iran is unfolding almost parallel to the US intervention in Venezuela, where President Maduro was captured in the early days of 2026. Both strategically and perceptually, this event has major implications for the leadership in Tehran. Over the past decade, Iran and Venezuela have strengthened their relationship, uniting over shared status as a major oil producer, falling under Western sanctions, and mutual opposition to US foreign policy. Tehran has begun using Caracas as a means to bolster influence in the Western hemisphere, as proxy groups, like Hezbollah, have established presence there [9]. Venezuelan operations aided in the transfer of Iranian drones, revenue streams, and criminal financial activity linked to Hezbollah. These gold trading, narco networks, and other illicit flows both fund Iranian militant activity and expand influence outside of the region.
Maduro’s capture sends a strong message to Iranian leadership in Tehran. First, it removed a strategic Iranian ally, as Venezuela bolstered Iran, particularly in the Western hemisphere. However, more importantly, the capture signals to Tehran’s leadership that the US is willing and able to take action against hostile regimes even during periods of internal instability. While Iranian officials have condemned the US capture of Maduro as a “dangerous law-breaking,” [10] it is evident that Iran could fall to the same fate as Venezuela.
This threat of US involvement reinforces a security narrative of external encirclement for Iran. Within Tehran, there are fears that the same logic used by the Trump administration will be applied to Iran should the stability conditions further deteriorate. Thus, this helps to explain Iran’s increasingly aggressive approach towards the US, including warnings of retaliation in the case of American forces intervening in the country [8]. These threats of retaliation both deter external action and reinforce regime legitimacy domestically by framing the discontent as part of a broader geopolitical conflict.
Beyond posturing, the loss of the Venezuelan alliance undermines a tangible, strategic partnership that gave Iran economic and political benefits. The disruption of this weakens Tehran’s ability to project its influence in the Western hemisphere and constrains the proxy network of Hezbollah. US officials, like Secretary of State Marco Rubio, stated that the dismantling of Iranian presence in Venezuela is a matter of hemispheric security. This emphasizes the important notion that Iran’s activities in Venezuela have major implications for criminal networks and ideological projection beyond the Middle East region.
Regional Context: Gaza and the Middle East
While Iran’s inner turmoil is different from the conflict in Gaza, the ongoing instability in the Israel-Gaza context remains a critical backdrop that reflects regional security dynamics. The late 2025 ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, although seemingly promising at the time, has since rendered unstable due to repeated violations of the agreement. Targeted strikes continue, which can be seen in recent drone attacks that demonstrate the persistence of violence and conflict in the Gaza Strip [11].
Iran’s support for the Palestinian cause and militant groups, like Hamas and Hezbollah, have historically been pillars of Iranian regional strategy, framing it as part of a broader resistance against Israel and Western influence. Tehran, despite the formal ceasefires, has continued to assert backing for Palestinian actors and allied militias, further underscoring competition with Israel. The persistence of instability in Gaza connects, in several ways, with the unrest in Iran.
Iran’s Narrative: Tehran frequently utilizes the Gaza conflict as a means of justification for its regional policies and mobilization of national sentiment. Iran often presents itself as a “defender” of the Palestinian cause, seeking to cultivate external legitimacy [12]. The inconsistency of the ceasefire complicates this, by showing that regardless of Iran’s proxy support, there has not been a resilient resolution to the violence in Gaza.
Regional Insecurity: The Gaza crisis contributes to broader Middle East insecurity and the overall volatile environment that is plagued with inconsistent alliances, non-sustainable ceasefire agreements, and ongoing conflict between state and non-state actors. The entire Middle East environment is vulnerable to different conflict spillover and intersection [13]. Although the Gaza ceasefire did reduce the scale of hostilities that were occurring, violence persists in the form of retaliatory strikes and militant violence, demonstrating the constant potential for escalation within the entire Middle East region.
Allocation of Resources: Iran has allocated both financial and logistical resources to Gaza as a means of Palestinian support [14]. However, as internal Iranian unrest intensifies, these resources are strained. The lack of resources available for external allocation could force Tehran to reduce support in Gaza and shift their emphasis internally.
Proxy Networks: Militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon continue to operate within an environment where power vacuums, leadership transitions, and competing authorities shape regional dynamics [15]. Iran has significant influence in these networks, but their role remains vulnerable due to shifts in regional alignments and geopolitical pressures. Conflicts in Gaza directly affect Iran’s strategic outlook, as new leaders and allies seek external negotiations that may not fully align with Iranian objectives.
Ultimately, the Gaza conflict and the collapse of the ceasefire are a part of a broader environment of insecurity in the Middle East that directly intersects with Iran’s ongoing internal crisis. While not a direct cause and effect between the events, they both contribute to the regional dynamic that plays a major role in influencing Iran’s foreign policy.
Global Geopolitical Risk Outlook
The Iranian crisis is not the only ongoing global disruption. This event sits among US interventions, Middle East conflict, and alliance shifts which are all contributing to the fracturing of the global security environment. The overlap between these crises complicates international response and amplifies risk perceptions. There are significant implications, both for Iran and the larger international community, of the ongoing internal crisis in Iran.
Iranian Implications: For Iranian policy and governance, the current outlook based on ongoing events is one of vulnerability and continued instability. First, intensified repression of protestors may work for the short term goal of curbing the momentum of the movement, but it will likely deepen societal grievances against Iranian leadership and therefore prolong instability. Further, economic conditions are likely to worsen as discontent persists, further exacerbating the domestic issue. Lastly, fractures within Iranian security and elite circles may form, making control increasingly difficult, ultimately leading to prolonged conflict.
Regional Implications: As other countries, like the US and Israel, weigh in on the Iranian conflict, there may be escalation leading to a broader conflict. Iran’s continued Palestinian support and now Israel’s condemnation [16] of the Iranian authorities is balancing on the edge of deepening the already ongoing regional conflict in the Middle East. Now, due to the strain of Iranian resources, authorities in Tehran may shift their regional strategy and reduce regional engagements to focus on internal stability. However, they may also shift to externalize conflict and mobilize internal nationalist sentiments.
Global Implications: External powers are going to have difficult decisions to make, as Iran threatens retaliation on any external intervention, especially by the US. However, it is important for external nations to monitor the Iranian crisis for humanitarian rights issues and democratic collapse. International pressures on Iran will likely begin with humanitarian channels and sanctions policies, in an effort to avoid escalation while still addressing the human cost.
Humanitarian Implications: Due to the information and communication blackout in Iran, humanitarian response is significantly hindered. International organizations are challenged in terms of verifying abuses, documenting violations, and most importantly, delivering aid. Because of this, it is plausible that the death toll may increase as the conflict persists and aid is stalled.
The ongoing protests in Iran represent an important era of political unrest, economic despair, and mobilization of society. While it began as an expression of discontent over economic conditions, the crisis has now evolved into a nationwide discontent with the Iranian political order. The Iranian response, including the harsh crackdown on demonstrators, suppression of information via the blackout, and crediting of the unrest to foreign adversaries has drawn both domestic and international tensions. As the crisis continues to unfold, the implications extend beyond Iranian borders. Middle East stability, US-Iranian relations, and global geopolitical balances are at risk. The situation in Iran highlights the interconnected nature of modern political crises, where an internal issue can draw international attention.
Managing the Iranian crisis is going to require international diplomacy, focus on human rights, and efforts to address economic discontent. Without engagement, the repression and resistance may lead to prolonged instability and ultimately, will lead to international consequences.
Sources
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[9] Pelayo, Joze, Kirsten Fontenrose, and Ellie Sennett. 2026. “The Venezuela-Iran connection and what Maduro’s capture means for Tehran, explained.” Atlantic Council.
[10] Mortazavi, Mahsa. 2026. “Iran International.” Iran strongly condemns US attack on Venezuela.
[11] Al-Mughrabibi, Nidal. 2026. “Israeli-backed group kills a senior Hamas police officer in Gaza, threatens more attacks.” Reuters.
[12] Nweiran, Razan, Ahmed Adel, and Sayed Ghoneim. 2025. “Missiles and Meaning: Iran’s Strategic Use of Religious Rhetoric.” IGSDA.
[13] “The Danger of Regional War in the Middle East.” 2024. The International Crisis Group.
[14] “Captured Documents Show Iranian Support for Hamas in the Gaza Strip.” 2024. The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.
[15] Fadel, Leila. 2025. “Gaza power vacuum adds new hurdles to Israel-Hamas ceasefire.” NPR.
[16] Lidman, Melanie. 2026. “Iranian protests are growing. Israel is watching closely.” AP News.
