The Question
An attempted assassination in Monaco raises an issue that goes beyond the attack: How do investigators determine if a violent crime is linked to a larger criminal network when the motive and masterminds are not known?
What Investigators Know
Ukrainian Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko told Interfax-Ukraine that investigators are looking into a possible connection between call-center operations and the July attack on former Ukrainian citizen and businessman Vadym Yermolayev. But Kravchenko said this was only one theory, and investigators have not yet gathered enough evidence to publicly identify everyone responsible.
The difference is important. A possible connection is not the same as a confirmed connection. In an attempted assassination that may involve criminal activity across multiple countries, investigators need to determine not only who carried out the attack, but who organized it, who may have financed it and why the target was chosen.
An International Investigation
The investigation already involves several Ukrainian law enforcement agencies and authorities in Monaco. Kravchenko said the National Police and the Security Service of Ukraine are working together on the case, while Ukrainian authorities have provided available information to investigators in Monaco. The international nature of the investigation makes determining how the different pieces fit together more difficult.
This complexity is also why an investigation can produce several theories before reaching a final conclusion. Investigators may identify people, financial transactions or other circumstances that appear connected to a crime without yet knowing exactly how those pieces fit together. A theory gives investigators something to test.
It does not necessarily provide the final explanation.
The Call-Center Theory
The call-center theory appears to be connected to Yermolyev’s family. Kravchenko said Yermolayev’s son was involved with call centers, had previously been wanted, was later detained and eventually entered into a plea agreement and compensated for damages. Yermolayev himself was questioned, but investigators have not established a motive for the crime.
That presents an important investigative problem: a link is not necessarily a motive
A person’s connection to a business or criminal matter may give investigators reason to examine a possible connection, but that alone does not prove that the activity resulted in an attempted assassination. Investigators still have to establish how the suspected activity relates to the attack itself.
The Berezovska Investigation
The same problem appears in the investigation surrounding Anastasia Berezovska. Interpol issued an international arrest warrant for Berezovska on July 3 in connection with the attempted assassination. Monaco authorities suspected her of planting the explosive device that seriously injured Yermolayev and his relatives. Her body was later found in Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities subsequently detained two people suspected of her murder.
Investigators believe those two men may also have been involved in the attempted assassination of Yermolayev. According to Interfax-Ukraine, authorities have evidence that the men repeatedly transferred money to Berezovska’s cryptocurrency and bank accounts. Ukrainian authorities have also recovered surveillance footage from near the Monaco crime scene.
What the Evidence Can Show
Those pieces of evidence could help investigators determine whether the events are connected. Money transfers can establish relationships between people, while surveillance footage can help establish movements and interactions. Neither type of evidence automatically answers who ordered an attack, but both can help investigators reconstruct what happened when considered alongside other evidence.
The challenge is determining whether all those pieces form one cohesive chain.
For example, investigators still have to determine what the transfers of money were for and why they occurred. The existence of a financial connection does not by itself establish that the money was connected to the Monaco attack. Similarly, surveillance footage can show that someone was near a crime scene, but investigators still have to determine what that person’s presence means.
Why Motive Matters
That is why the question of motive remains important. According to Kravchenko, investigators have not yet established the motive for the crime. Without a motive, it becomes more difficult to determine which connections are relevant and which may be coincidental. Investigators can establish relationships between individuals, but those relationships still have to be connected to the attack through evidence.
This is also why Kravchenko’s statement that investigators have not gathered enough evidence to identify everyone responsible is significant. The investigation has produced potential connections, but it has not yet established the complete chain of responsibility.
Following the Connections
The international nature of the case adds another layer of complexity. Ukrainian authorities say they are working with investigative authorities in Monaco, and the SBU has provided information available to Ukrainian law enforcement. Evidence and people connected to the investigation are therefore spread across more than one country.
The investigators’ task is to follow these connections without assuming they are related simply because they appear in the same investigation. Financial transactions, surveillance footage and relationships between the people involved can help determine whether the events are part of the same criminal operation, but each connection still has to be supported by evidence.
The Bigger Question
Right now, the clearest conclusion is also the simplest: the investigation has revealed potential links, but it has not confirmed the entire chain.
For an attempted assassination followed by another death and suspected connections between the people involved, there is a natural temptation to connect everything immediately. But investigators still have to determine which pieces actually belong together.
The eventual answer will depend less on whether investigators have theories worth pursuing and more on their ability to connect the people, money, movements and decisions involved in the crime. Until that happens, the call-center connection remains what Ukrainian authorities have described it as: a theory under investigation, not an established explanation.