Cryptocurrencies

The Use of Cryptocurrencies to Finance Terrorism in Latin America

In recent years, cryptocurrencies have become increasingly relevant in world financial markets. This digital means of exchange is a revolution in the economy, and it will likely continue to consolidate in the future.

However, cryptocurrencies have also been used for illegal purposes. Terrorist groups and drug traffickers are increasingly using them, especially to launder money. This represents an enormous challenge in the fight against the financing of terrorism and organized crime.

What are Cryptocurrencies and How Do They Work?

The European Central Bank defines cryptocurrencies as a digital representation of value, not issued by any central authority, credit institution, or recognized electronic money issuer that, on certain occasions, can be used as an alternative means of payment to money. Likewise, cryptocurrencies are issued outside of governments and central banks, and this function is transferred to anyone who wants to participate. The currency is generated through a “mining” process and the security of transactions is achieved through blockchain technology.

The use of cryptocurrencies is increasing worldwide, and this is due largely to the benefits of using them. Some analysts point out that some of the advantages of using cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, are reducing costs in international transfers, as in the case of remittances, and it favors financial inclusion. Additionally, some of their attributes are more portable, divisible, imperishable, unfalsifiable, and have lower transaction costs.

However, other economists remain skeptical about the use of cryptocurrencies because of the numerous disadvantages. Crypto assets have limitations as means of payment, due to their high volatility of price, the risks associated with their possession and custody against cybercrime and financial fraud, the opacity of their issuance and verification protocols, the transactional costs in exchange for other assets, and the lack of a person in charge who accounts for any failure or fraud in these schemes. For this reason, the degree of acceptance and use of cryptocurrencies is still very low compared to the payment systems of legal tender currencies.

In Latin America, the disadvantages of the use of cryptocurrencies translate into facilities for terrorist groups and drug traffickers to operate. This represents an enormous challenge for financial and security authorities, given that criminal groups quickly adapt to changes in today’s world.

How Terrorist and Drug Trafficking Groups Use Cryptocurrencies

The nature of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin allows them to be used by illegal groups to finance their activities. Various investigations in recent years have shown that drug trafficking, fraud, ransomware, extortion, and the purchase of illicit goods and services on the dark web routinely use virtual currencies as a payment method.

Furthermore, extremist and terrorist groups use cryptocurrencies as a financial tool because it is anonymous and easily transferable from one country to another. There are groups that have campaigned offering cryptocurrency wallets for their followers to transfer virtual currencies to finance terrorist movements and activities.

As for drug traffickers, cryptocurrencies favor them to transfer money between continents. Since cash is converted into cryptocurrencies, it is easier to transfer it and the virtual currency, which becomes impossible to trace, greatly facilitates money laundering.

In Latin America, the use of cryptocurrencies by illegal groups is worrisome. According to authorities in the United States and Mexico, the use of cryptocurrencies to launder money is on the rise among drug gangs in Latin America. An investigation by Reuters reveals that the use of bitcoin to launder money is booming with cartels such as Jalisco Nueva Generación and Sinaloa, of the captured capo Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán.

Authorities have also found that drug traffickers and terrorists use bank accounts to buy small amounts of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoins online, obscuring the origin of the money and allowing them to pay collaborators in other parts of the world. This is because it is a system where the users are practically anonymous. As for money laundering figures, it has been estimated that 25 billion dollars a year is laundered in Mexico alone.

However, some arrests against criminals using cryptocurrencies have already been made. In April 2019, Ignacio Santoyo, alias “El Sony,” was captured for the crime of human trafficking. Santoyo intended to launder thousands of dollars in illicit profits through the use of bitcoin. In 2018, Santoyo and his sister, Ivy, acquired at least 440,800 pesos (about $22,260 USD) in bitcoin through Bitso, a platform for buying and selling cryptocurrencies with operations in Mexico and Argentina.

Other notable captures include Héctor Ortiz, who acquired bitcoins to launder thousands of dollars in illicit profits, 29 people in 2019 were accused of laundering and transferring profits to cartels in Mexico, and 23 people in 2018 in Colombia and Spain.

Agencies such as the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) have declared that the situation in countries such as Mexico and Colombia is critical. In fact, Colombia is one of the countries where cryptocurrency transactions have increased significantly. According to LocalBitcoins, the trade between bitcoins and Colombian pesos grew by 45% in the last year, reaching 3.8 million dollars in the first week of November 2020. Trends indicate that virtual currencies, such as Bitcoin will increase in popularity, so its use by criminal organizations is likely to increase.

In addition, in 2021, drug traffickers who operated with bitcoin in Peru, Colombia and Bolivia were sentenced. They were accused of earning approximately 5 million dollars in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Authorities said the men were selling Class A drugs that they bought in South America.

A Big Challenge

Without a doubt, the use of cryptocurrencies by criminal groups is one of the great challenges for Latin American authorities in the near future.

The difficulty in tracking the use of these cryptocurrencies influences the financing of terrorism and money laundering in the region. Thus, it is recommended that the state financial and security authorities implement regulations and technological innovations to reduce the negative impact of crypto assets. However, it is a difficult task, which costs a lot to carry out.

 

Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rozo, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Metaverse

Terrorism in the Metaverse: How Extremist Organizations Penetrate Burgeoning Spaces

For as long as new technology has emerged, governments have struggled to keep up with their use by extremist organizations. Such organizations utilize these spaces because it allows them to access platforms where global youth congregate, and it is an opportunity to disseminate their ideals. With current technological trends, the way in which we communicate will undergo several iterations with each new development in computation power and integration of platforms. One of the most salient technologies which has a large potential to be popular in the latter decades of this century is the metaverse. While still in its infancy and undefined, policymakers must understand what it is and how terrorists have used technology in the past.

Terrorism and Technology

In the decades prior to the advent of the internet, terrorist organizations had fewer options for making their presence known to an international audience. They also had a far more limited means of recruitment since their organizations were not well known outside of the region or state in which they conducted operations. In order to truly bring attention to their aims, these groups had to do something drastic which would break into popular newspapers and widely circulate. During this era, the most popular ways to accomplish this include hijackings, bombings, or assassinations. One of the best case studies for this period is the 1977 Dutch Train Hijacking.

The Moluccans had a long history with the Dutch as they were under colonial rule and aided their interests in the Dutch East Indies. This relationship continued after the Second World War when the Dutch promised them their own state in exchange for armed cooperation against the Indonesian rebellion. After the conflict, the Moluccans did not receive any of the state’s promises, and those who served in the Royal Netherlands Indies Army (KNIL) immigrated to the Netherlands in 1951. Those who grew up in Holland felt betrayed by the Dutch, but they had the misfortune of being a small minority advocating for a hypothetical state in a geographically isolated island chain. This desperation resulted in hijacking a train and taking over a primary school to advance their political aims. The incident was endemic to that era of terrorism.

However, the true paradigm shift in how terrorists interacted with media occurred years prior during the 1972 Munich Games. The games were meant to bring about a new chapter in German history and signal to the world that they had moved past their dark history. Members of the terrorist group Black September planned to take Israeli hostages in exchange for the release of over 200 Palestinians held by Israel. This marked a clear demarcation from tactics of this era as they chose an event where the world’s media gathered to cover the games. Moreover, the event also solidified an internationalization of terrorism which had commenced when hijackings became transnational rather than solely domestic.

As the Munich attacks lasted for ten days, terrorists began to see the power technology could have on furthering their aims. The next development in how terrorists utilized emerging technologies was during the 1990s, when extremist groups took advantage of the emerging 24-hour news cycle and the proliferation of primitive websites dedicated to their content. The estimated number of terrorist-centric websites was limited during this period, but it highlights their determination to use any new medium to gather attention and facilitate recruitment efforts. During the past two decades, extremist organizations have made use of social networks to radicalize individuals to commit attacks. Furthermore, ISIS was found to upload thousands of videos onto YouTube over a three-month period.

What is the Metaverse?

While terrorists have been quick to adapt to technological advances and evolutions, it is crucial for policymakers to understand what the Metaverse is. Defining the metaverse is difficult in the present moment as the concept is in its infancy. As Facebook changed its name to Meta, it showed a glimpse of what the metaverse could be. While initially describing the applications it intends to create, the metaverse will likely include a wide variety of technological trends to converge our digital lives with our real lives.

Many platforms will likely integrate various aspects of their services to change the way we communicate and engage with content. As this occurs, the generations who will grow up with this technology will be increasingly isolated with the amount of time they will spend in the metaverse and will be preyed upon in these spaces by extremist organizations. It is also possible that spaces in the metaverse could become a hub for cyber-terrorism and disinformation through the advancement of deepfakes.

What Stakeholders Can Do

The metaverse will likely not reach maturity within 2022 but rather in 5-10 years from now when the first immersive iterations will have the full capabilities which tech experts have envisioned. While the functionality of the metaverse is not yet at full capacity, there can be steps taken to address this emerging challenge concerning state security.

A way to stay ahead of the challenges of the metaverse is investing in researching the technologies comprising the metaverse. Governments will also need to strengthen bonds with the private sector to mitigate the influence of extremist groups on the platform. Taking such steps will ensure that the next evolution in communication and entertainment will be a space bereft of extremist content.

 

Christopher Ynclan Jr., Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

COVID-19

Terrorism and COVID-19: An Overview of their Impact on Syria

Syria is mired in poverty and disarray as a result of terrorism, and the impacts of COVID-19 have exacerbated the conditions. Syria needs a comprehensive plan to fight a series of unresolved difficulties after decades of terrorism, civil conflict, poverty, and famine. The largest refugee exodus in history occurred across the country during the previous year.

Desperation and Disarray in Syria

In 2016, 366 terrorist attacks occurred in Syria, and in 2019, more than 10,000 people were killed, and finally, according to the Observatory, in 2020, 6,800 individuals were killed. However, while these numbers are staggering, they do not compare to 2014, Syria’s deadliest year, in which 76,000 people were killed.

2021 marked one decade since Syria’s uprisings erupted; unfortunately, the nation remains impoverished and plagued with violence. It began as ruthless assaults on anti-government demonstrations, evolving into a complicated battleground involving international forces, local militias, and foreign fighters. The conflict also spawned the world’s biggest refugee crisis, with more than half of Syria’s people displaced. There are 5.5 million refugees living primarily in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt, while another 6.7 million are internally displaced.

The confluence of wars and attacks, economic crises, water shortages, and COVID-19 has created an atmosphere of terror and a dire humanitarian situation, according to Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. Humanitarian needs in Syria are at their highest as there is an urgent call for a total change in terms of policies and measures to demolish terrorism.

The Brutal Effects of Terrorism 

Terrorism has had a significant influence on oil, which is one of the Middle East’s most important industries. Attacks on oil production have resulted in supply disruptions. Considering ISIS’s primary revenue stream is the illicit sale of oil, Syria became a target for territorial control to gain access to oil wells and establish dominance in the oil market.

Additionally, day-to-day life, such as access to clean water and adequate living conditions, have been impacted by both terrorism and COVID-19 in Syria. However, even though humanitarian conditions have eroded, the Syrian government continues to restrict the distribution of humanitarian aid across the nation.  Roughly 11.1 million of the 17.5 million Syrians required humanitarian aid in 2020.

Of the humanitarian aid that was distributed to Syrians in the first half of 2021, the contributions consisted of food, access to clean water, hospital renovations, hygiene products, and basic essentials.

Notable improvements and humanitarian aid contributions across Syria include, the implementation of a water purification program to 10.5 million individuals across nine governorates; the distribution of food parcels to 1.3 million Syrians and the donation of basic household items, blankets, mattresses, and hygiene kits to 500,00 individuals throughout seven governorates; and the distribution of COVID-19-specific hygiene kits to prevent the spread of the virus. Additionally, thousands of Syrians received vouchers as a means to access food and hygiene products.

Current Outcomes and Future Suggestions

Syria’s current situation is inhumane. According to sources, terrorists belonging to the Islamic State (IS) in Syria appear to be plotting more fatal strikes in 2022. The assessment comes amid an uptick in IS activity in recent weeks, including two strikes in the war-torn country’s eastern and central areas, which the organization has claimed as its own.

Worldwide collaboration is needed to remedy the Syrian crisis. Shortages of basic goods, such as bread and petrol, have become a common concern, and the number of people in need of humanitarian aid climbed by 21% in 2021. Another aspect to consider is the COVID-19 vaccination rate. Currently, only 5% of the country’s overall population has been reported as fully vaccinated, raising questions about the government’s capacity to deliver vaccinations equitably even within its own borders.

Also, calls for Kurdish-led authorities and the U.S.-led coalition to compensate for the civilian casualties inflicted in their fight against the IS is sought to remedy the impact of their attacks in northeastern Syria. Moreover, the individuals with suspected ties to the IS and who continue to remain in camps and prisons must be swiftly investigated to provide answers and mitigate indefinite detentions.

Since the onset of the Syrian conflict in 2011, the U.S. Institute of Peace focused efforts on Syria, but an effective and long-lasting resolution is still lacking. Terrorism is demolishing the country, and the unstoppable attacks over the years make Syria a high priority for help.

 

Katerina Rebecca Paraskeva, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

U.S. Military

An Overview of Extremism in the U.S. Military

On January 6, 2021, a violent mob of Trump supporters launched an attack on the United States Capitol. They tore through the security perimeter, overwhelming police lines and invading the building. As the rioters attempted to break down the makeshift barricades defending the House Chamber, armed guards drew their weapons and members of Congress removed their lapel pins so as not to be identified. For U.S. Representative Jason Crow, a Colorado Democrat trapped inside the chamber, the intentions of the rioters were clear, “they were going to try to kill members.”

One year after the January 6 attack, the identities of those involved are being revealed, exposing a leading role for individuals with ties to the U.S. military. Of the 727 defendants charged in the attack, at least 81 have a record of military service, including Ashli Babbitt, an Air Force veteran fatally shot attempting to breach Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office suite. Over one quarter of these individuals were commissioned officers, and 44% had a history of deployment.

Of particular concern for security experts is that 37% were associated with violent extremist groups, including the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, making those rioters with military backgrounds over four times more likely to be part of such groups than rioters without. Indeed, this data reflects previous findings from the Justice Department’s Terrorism Research and Analysis Project, which suggest a significant over-representation of individuals with military backgrounds in right-wing extremist groups, including positions of leadership.

The prominence of these individuals in the attack highlights concerns of an upsurge in right-wing extremism within the U.S. military. Whilst officials attribute this growing extremism to broader social trends, security experts warn that the radicalization of service members, many of whom have undergone specialized military training, represents a critical threat. Indeed, according to Kristofer Goldsmith, former chief investigator at Vietnam Veterans of America, “we’re already in the early stages of an insurgency in the United States.”

Between 1990 to July 2021, at least 354 individuals with military ties committed criminal acts motivated by extremist aims, according to a research brief by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. It was found that between 1990-2010 there was an average of six criminal cases per year, but in the last decade that figure has tripled to 21 cases per year.

Whilst most of these acts are perpetrated by veterans, the “vast majority of [whom] actually became extremist after they were in the military,” according to Mark Pitcavage, a specialist on far-right groups for the Anti-Defamation League, the Department of Defense has also reported extremist activity among active-duty troops, including around 100 substantiated cases in 2021 alone. Indeed, according to a poll by the Military Times, over one third of active-duty troops have witnessed displays of white nationalism or ideologically-motivated racism in the U.S. military.

History of Extremism in the U.S. Military

Right-wing extremism in the U.S. military is far from new, according to Cassie Miller, a research specialist for the Southern Poverty Law Center, “historically, this has been a problem for the military.” In the 1960s, Black soldiers in Vietnam filed reports of white soldiers flying Confederate flags and celebrating the death of civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. by parading in Ku Klux Klan-style robes.

In the 1970s, the K.K.K. was found to be operating openly at a U.S. Marine Corps base in California. In 1986, the Southern Poverty Law Center issued its first warning to the Pentagon concerning racially-motivated extremism in the U.S. military. In 1995, Army veteran Timothy McVeigh, an anti-government extremist detonated a truck bomb beneath a federal building in Oklahoma, killing 168 people in the deadliest domestic terrorist attack in U.S. history.

The January 6 attack, alongside a recent spate of foiled extremist plots, suggests a new surge in right-wing extremism within the U.S. military. These include an attempt by an Army private to orchestrate a murderous ambush on his own unit by passing secret information to a satanic neo-Nazi group; a plan to bomb a Black Lives Matter protest by three Nevada men with military backgrounds; and a failed ploy to kidnap the governor of Michigan involving two former Marines. “There is a crisis issue,” says Representative Jason Crow, a retired Army officer and member of the House Armed Services Committee, “the rise of extremism and white supremacy in the ranks.”

After January 6

Following the Capitol Hill riot, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin instituted a highly unusual military-wide “stand down” to address extremism within the ranks. Mr. Austin ordered that all military commands use this pause in operations to reinforce restrictions on extremist activity and to discuss troops’ views on the issue. After the stand down, a working group was established to support a Pentagon-led review of the prohibitions on extremist activity amongst service members.

“We don’t know the full breadth and depth of this,” said Department of Defense (D.O.D.) spokesman John Kirby at the time, describing the prevalence of extremism within the U.S. military. “It may be more than we’re comfortable feeling and admitting, and probably a lot less than the media attention surrounding it seems to suggest it could be. But where is it? It’s just not clear.”

Last month, following the conclusion of its review, the D.O.D. announced a set of updates to its guidelines on tackling extremism in the ranks. The new policies include strict prohibitions on social media activity. Under the new restrictions, “liking” or sharing extremist material will be considered advocacy and could result in disciplinary action. They also clarify behaviors considered active participation in extremist groups, such as rallying and fundraising.

Moreover, the updates involve enhanced screening of recruits. The military services all apply some degree of screening for extremism among their new entrants, including criminal background checks and the Marine Corps’ “moral qualification screening” forms. The guideline updates will further enhance these procedures. Further, efforts will be made to prepare retiring troops from being recruited by extremist groups.

Shortcomings in the Current Approach

Some experts warn that the guidelines are insufficient for tackling extremism among U.S. troops. The new D.O.D. rules do not prohibit membership of extremist organizations, such as the K.K.K. or the various right-wing militias seen at the Capitol Hill riot. Whilst the armed forces strongly discourage membership of extremist groups, this behavior is difficult to challenge in its protection under the First Amendment.

Concerns have also been raised regarding the enforcement of the new rules. The guidelines on prohibited social media activity do not include a list of banned organizations and have been described as “loosely defined” by a former chief prosecutor for the U.S. Air Force.

Moreover, it is unclear how the new rules will be enacted. “There’s no methodology in there,” said Kirby, announcing the new guidelines. Commanders are expected to be notified of concerns through “various streams of reporting.” Experts are concerned that the near total discretion of commanders to implement the new guidelines will further entrench the scattershot enforcement of counter-extremism procedures.

Further, whilst the D.O.D.’s review recommends the establishment of a dedicated central office for addressing extremism among troops, this proposal has not been implemented, and the Pentagon lacks a dedicated budget for counter-extremism work within the ranks.

“I really think the best option for their side of things would be to kind of create more of a centralized office that is staffed by a bunch of case managers … focusing on nonpunitive measures first,” said Andrew Mines, a research fellow at the Program on Extremism at George Washington University. “You can give commanders all the training you want, they’re still never going to be at the point where they have the same kind of competencies and expertise that folks with mental health background, with kind of generalist backgrounds in extremist organizations and extremist ideology”

Conclusions and Recommendations

In sum, the efforts of the D.O.D. in their updated guidelines do not go far enough to address increasing extremism in the armed forces. Whilst “the overwhelming majority of the men and women of the Department of Defense serve this country with honor and integrity,” said Mr. Austin, security experts are concerned by surging right-wing extremism among the ranks of the U.S. Armed Forces. “If leadership is not in touch with the people they’re leading, this kind of thing can happen,” stated Mr. Austin while discussing the January 6 attack before the Senate Armed Services Committee. “I don’t think this is anything you can just put a Band-Aid on and fix.”

The Pentagon also needs to expand support for retired troops. Veterans are key targets for extremist groups, and data suggests that they are particularly vulnerable to the recruitment efforts of these organizations. Indeed, most extremists with military backgrounds underwent radicalization after leaving the armed forces. Therefore, while the new guidelines include some provisions for retiring troops, more work needs to be done in this area, and the Department of Veterans Affair should introduce a dedicated counter-extremism program.

Finally, the D.O.D. must investigate the underlying social and psychological drivers of extremism in its ranks. Officials recognize that surging right-wing extremism among troops can be attributed to broader trends in Western society. Yet the updated approach does little to acknowledge or address these deeper grievances surrounding American democracy, and the various economic and cultural frustrations empowering extremist recruitment efforts. Indeed, according to Mines, if you “don’t focus on the primary prevention side, you’re always going to be playing whack-a-mole.”

Extremism in the ranks of the world’s most powerful military force is a serious security risk, both within the United States and beyond. Tackling this threat will require a more effortful approach than simply restricting social media activity or enhancing screening protocols.

The Pentagon should adopt a comprehensive strategy to address extremism within the armed forces. As social division in the United States continues to grow, with trust in institutions collapsing, and Americans increasingly drawn toward extremist narratives, it becomes ever more important that attitudes, beliefs, and ideologies discordant with American values do not go unchallenged in the armed forces. The task is huge, but it must be undertaken, and it will require far more than a simple Band-Aid.

 

Oliver Alexander Crisp, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

United Kingdom

The State of Terrorism in the United Kingdom

Terrorism within the United Kingdom, over the past decade, has encountered many critical threats that have challenged its security. While the island nation is not unique in the threats it faces, it serves as a useful case study to analyze upcoming trends affecting its allies for the foreseeable future. By doing so, the United Kingdom and its allies can better understand emerging challenges and better support transatlantic security. To complete this aim, policymakers must investigate the history of terrorism within the United Kingdom and newer hazards to British society.

Challenges of the 20th Century

In the 20th century, one of the United Kingdom’s greatest threats was insecurity derived from Irish separatism threatening its territorial integrity. One of the earliest incidents of this insecurity occurred over a century ago during the Easter Rising of 1916. During this event, a coalition of Irish groups hoped to demand greater autonomy for Ireland while the United Kingdom was preoccupied with fighting the First World War. Although initially taken aback, British forces overwhelmed those involved in the rising. When the dust had settled, hundreds had died from the fighting and the event leaders were sentenced to death.

The Easter Rising would be a pivotal moment in Irish political history because it drew the Irish public’s support for their cause. Consequently, the rising would also inspire future generations of Irish separatists to use violence for a united Ireland.

The most infamous terrorist group which the Easter Rising would inspire was the Irish Republican Army (IRA). The group traces its heritage to the first organization to hold that name which fought the British Army during 1919. Ireland would be partitioned two years later and serve as a backdrop for the worst fighting between the IRA and loyalist paramilitary groups.

The IRA truly became infamous during the period known as the Troubles, which lasted from the 1960s to the 1990s. The sectarian violence claimed the lives of thousands and ended in signing the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. The agreement created several integral institutions such as the Northern Ireland Assembly providing lasting peace in Northern Ireland.

Critical Threats in the 21st Century

In the new millennium, the United Kingdom’s primary threat to their national security stemmed not from Irish separatism but from Islamic extremism. This was made clear after the July 7th London bombings which killed 52 civilians. For much of the 2000s, al-Qaeda was the group responsible for either perpetrating or inspiring attacks in the United Kingdom. However, this changed with the rise of ISIS, which grew in capability and resources to inspire attacks. By the end of the 2010s, ISIS garnered attention with the 2017 Manchester bombing.

During 2022, the United Kingdom still faces an acute threat from Islamic extremism, but it also faces a rising challenge from right-wing extremism. In January 2022, a 17-year-old in the United Kingdom was arrested on suspicion of wanting to commit violence against members of the Muslim community and kill thousands of others. The head of MI5, Ken McCallum, stated that his agency is seeing young teenagers radicalized through the internet.

Policy for the Future

While the rise in right-wing extremism is not exclusive to the United Kingdom, it must understand the conditions causing this rise. In the present century, there has been a proliferation of technology designed to create a global public square and enable democratization of knowledge. Instead, the generations who have grown up with this technology have become increasingly isolated and have fewer friends than previous generations.

Many individuals have scoured the internet in search of companionship and comradery but instead are preyed upon by extremist groups who have grown in capacity to do so. Furthermore, the country which they find themselves in is also expected to become more ethnically diverse over the coming decades. Such conditions have compounded to create an environment rife for British youth to be wrangled into right-wing extremism.

To combat such developments, the United Kingdom should institute initiatives to alleviate the isolation which their youth face. The United Kingdom should also bolster its security through increased engagement in Northern Ireland and its domestic Muslim community; both areas could become sources of unrest.  Brexit and the increased capacity for ISIS recruitment efforts following the withdrawal from Afghanistan are both sources of increased unrest.

Moreover, they should also bolster their cybersecurity capabilities as competition will intensify in the coming decades. The United Kingdom will be subject to attempted penetrations in cyberspace by foreign governments to ascertain sensitive information. Should they back a harder line on authoritarian governments, there will also be efforts to weaken their resolve to do so. By taking initiative, the United Kingdom can be prepared for the upcoming years that will certainly present a challenge to their security.

 

Christopher Ynclan Jr., Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow