by Rise to Peace

GWOT Panel: Reflections from Team Member Lindsay Stanek

On Wednesday, December 6, I had the honor of attending The Global War on Terrorism: Myths, Realities & Solutions seminar at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. The seminar was hosted by Rise to Peace, a non-profit organization that works to promote peace and counter extremist ideology around the globe. The panel was composed of the former chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, Dr. Christopher Kojm, the founder of Rise to Peace, Ahmad Shah Mohibi as well as Dr. Gawdat Bahgat of the National Defense University and Ambassador John W. Limbert.

Lindsay Stanek is a M.A. candidate at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs

Early on in the discussion, Dr. Gawdat Bahgat contended that the roots of terrorism stem from perceived injustice. He argued, “When people feel that they have been unfairly treated, they often try to do something about it. Social media makes it much easier for individuals to communicate perceived injustice.”

Panelists discussed a wide range of topics from the roots of Al-Qaeda to the concentration of power under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, to the growing need for greater government transparency. Mr. Mohibi spoke of the corruption in the Afghan government and the rise of ISIS in the North of Afghanistan.Mr. Mohibi explained that there are presently twenty-six insurgency groups operating in the region and the unstable environment enables these terrorist groups to both target and exploit vulnerable children and defenseless families.

The discussion then moved to Dr. Kojm sharing his insight on what prompted the rise and proliferation of ISIS. Dr. Kojm explained how the U.S. intervention in Iraq put the Shia majority in power after countless Shia’s had been repressed under Saddam Hussein. Dr. Kojm shared, “The Sunni community felt marginalized and felt its existence was in question… the government in Iraq which was deeply distrustful of the Sunni community, they undid much of the political work of the surge…” Dr. Kojm then went on to speak of the corruption in the Iraqi government and lack of popular support for the government in the Sunni community. He claimed that an open door for ISIS was created not only from the political and social destabilization of Iraq, but also from perceived injustice and existential danger in the Sunni community.

Ambassador John W. Limbert then spoke of the Iranian threat and argued that it has been vastly overblown. He asserted that the Islamic Republic is a threat to its own people but much less of a threat to the United States. Ambassador Limbert suggested that what many countries in the Middle East lack is a working model of governance. He argued, “Almost all of them are multi-ethnic, multi-religious places…even the Emirates, even Kuwait…They need something that manages diversity…if not, you have grievances.”

Throughout the panel, I noticed how the speakers continuously discussed weak states and perceived injustices. I believe it is vital to continue to engage in discussions and educational panels that seek to sort through the complexities of various regions and identify the grievances that enable terrorists to capitalize on marginalized communities. In “Depictions of Children and Youth in the Islamic State’s Martyrdom Propaganda”, Mia Bloom, John Horgan and Charlie Winter write, “From January 1, 2015, to January 31, 2016, eighty-nine children and youth were eulogized in Islamic State propaganda. Fifty-one percent were alleged to have died in Iraq, while 36 percent died in Syria.”[1]

These numbers are staggering and reveal the disturbing fact that extremist organizations are recruiting children, the world’s most vulnerable, at ever-increasing rates. Children are not only being trained militarily but also ideologically, with violence being one of the primary tools of indoctrination.

ISIS has been known to visit orphanages and refugee camps to recruit[2] as well as impoverished villages and neighborhoods. “The poorer neighborhoods of Ankara, Turkey, are reportedly a source of child recruits. One such neighborhood, Hacibayram, has become a recruitment hub for ISIS.”[3] If we truly seek to counter the false narrative propagated by terrorists, it is vital to begin examining the grievances that aid in recruitment. Moreover, we must realize that education is vital in the fight against extremism. In the words of Malala Yousafzei, “Let us pick up our books and our pens…They are our most powerful weapons. One child, one teacher, one book and one pen can change the world.”

Lindsay Stanek, first from the left with the Team of Rise to Peace

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[1] Mia Bloom, John Horgan, Charlie Winter, “Depictions of Children and Youth in the Islamic State’s Martyrdom Propaganda,” CTC Sentinel 9, no. 2 (2016).

[2]Ibid., 652.

[3] J.M. Berger and Jessica Stern, ISIS: The State of Terror (New York: HarperCollins Publishers, 2015), 212.

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 by Sara Huzar

The Global War on Terror: Myths, Realities, and Solutions

On Wednesday, December 6th, Rise to Peace hosted the first in a series of panels focusing on issues relevant to understanding violent extremism. This panel, The Global War on Terrorism: Myths, Realities, and Solutions, featured Ambassador John Limbert, Distinguished Professor of International Affairs at the US Naval Academy; Professor Christopher Kojm, former chairman of the National Intelligence Council and visiting professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs; Professor Gawdat Baghat, professor of National Security Affairs at the National Defense University; and Ahmad Shah Mohibi, founder of Rise to Peace. The panel was moderated by Rise to Peace Senior Advisor, Assistant US Attorney Michael Sherwin, and introduced by the Director of Editorial & Outreach, Alicia Fawcett.

Through a series of questions, panelists expressed their views on the root causes of extremism, and the necessary conditions for eradicating it. All discussed the importance of perceived injustices and avenues for expressing discontent.

Alicia Fawcett, Director of Marketing and Outreach at Rise to Peace is speaking to Ambassador John Limbert about the Global Challenges.

In Professor Baghat’s words, “The main reason for terrorism is perceived injustice. When people believe they have been unfairly treated they try to do something about it.” Under repressive systems, when there are few peaceful methods of ‘doing something about it’, violent extremism becomes an outlet for discontented groups. “It is that marginalization,” Professor Kojm warns “which lead to horrors.”

The panelists also emphasized the need for the US to take a positive, diplomatic role in the Middle East. “Every other state, whether we like them or not, is a potential partner where we share interests,” noted Ambassador Limbert. Professor Baghat highlighted the need for the US to “promote democratic values and transparency.”

Sandy Maroun, MIPP student the Elliott School of International Affairs asking about role of Hezbolluah of Lebanon in the uprising of global conflicts.

Professor Kojm, however, warned of the need for responsible involvement adding, “The rise of ISIS is due to perceived injustice, perceived existential danger to a community, enormous social and political destabilization in Iraq, all as a result of the US intervention.”

Suleyman Agdag, graduate student at the Elliott School of International Affairs question about the role of ISIS in the Middle East.

More than one hundred people attended the panel, held at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. Food and refreshments were graciously provided by the Master’s of International Policy and Practice program.

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 by Rise to Peace

The Global War on Terrorism: Myths, Realities & Solutions

On Wednesday December 6th, the non-governmental organization (NGO) Rise to Peace hosted a seminar at the Elliott School of International Affairs entitled The Global War on Terrorism: Myths, Realities & Solutions. On the panel was the founder of Rise To Peace and GW Master of International Policy and Practice (MIPP) student, Ahmad Mohibi. Ahmad spoke about his life growing up in Afghanistan and his mission to reduce terrorism through education.

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The panel was moderated by Michael R. Sherwin, an Assistant United States Attorney and included Dr. Gawdat Bahgat, Ambassador Limbert and former MIPP Director Dr. Christopher Kojm.

The event was exceptionally well attended with many individuals standing in the back of Lindner Commons just to watch the panel speak on this complex yet important issue. Current MIPP Director, Dr. Matthew Levinger, spoke before the event stating the importance of this topic and his pleasure in seeing one of his students, Ahmad, address this in a proactive way.

After the event, students and faculty stayed to discuss the global war on terrorism and its implications on U.S. foreign policy and global stability. Ahmad was thrilled with the turnout for Rise To Peace’s inaugural speaking series event, the next of which will be in Turkey.
He said “I am thrilled that the MIPP program supported me and my organization, Rise To Peace, to host the Global War on Terrorism panel. The panel speakers were incredible, but what made the event most memorable was the energy and enthusiasm of the student audience, which shows the spirit of inquiry and justice runs strong throughout the Elliott School.”
Article by, Masters of International Policy and Practice, George Washington University.
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 by Tim O'Shea

ISIS in Kirkuk: What’s Happening and What it Means

What’s happening

Recent ISIS losses in Kirkuk Province in Iraq have been the latest blow in a series of major hits to the group, including their loss of their major stronghold of Mosul.  These losses represent a total decimation of the group’s strength: at its peak, the group controlled a third of Iraq, and yet it’s now relegated to mainly rural areas and small cities [1].  The attack itself was captioned by the retaking of Hawija, the most prominent city in the region.

The attack was carried out by a combination of U.S.-backed Iraqi forces and Iranian-backed Shia militias, which forced the remaining ISIS forces to fall back to isolated villages along the Syrian border [2].  The exact makeup of the group is controversial, with Iran-backed forces holding serious sway over even U.S. trained Iraqi units [3].  Regardless of the makeup of the unit, they were effective in removing the last major ISIS stronghold in northern Iraq, removing an important strategic asset for the so-called Caliphate.

The Future

The fight against ISIS is likely to morph into much more asymmetric and drawn-out warfare now that the group holds no urban centers.  Urban areas not only offered ISIS units the space to train and plan attacks but also offered the population needed for to maintain the group’s recruitment and resources.  Instead, Iraqi forces are now faced with clearing the vast deserts of Anbar Province complemented with a porous Syrian border [4].

While this seems daunting, Iraqi forces have confronted similar arenas in the fight so far: in the days leading up to the assault on Hawija, forces retook 25 small villages throughout Kirkuk Province while preparing to retake Hawija [5].Indeed, Kirkuk had already been experiencing mainly terror tactics such as IED and hit and run style attacks rather than full-on battles [6].

However, the relegation of the remainder of ISIS soldiers to this frontier may intensify this form of conflict.  Especially given the difficulty of maintaining consistent control over desert territory as well as tracking groups in the absence of strong infrastructure, this last leg of the conflict would be quite protracted.

Perhaps the most unsettling prospect of the decline of ISIS is the inevitable reintroduction of the social and political crises that generated space for ISIS to grow.  The emerging crisis with Kurdish independence, new worries over Sunni-Shi’a tensions as a result of Iranian involvement in the conflict, spillover from the Syrian civil war, and the huge task of postwar reconstruction could all contribute to new security challenges if not planned for proactively [7].

Indeed, the governor of Kirkuk noted the legacy of anti-system political violence stemming from the region, spanning al-Qaeda to the hypothetical groups to come [8].  And while it may seem arrogant to begin postwar planning, it was the same short-term planning strategies that have failed the United States time and time again in protracted wars around the globe.  Unless the U.S. wishes to be back in Iraq in another 5 years, the need for comprehensive postwar planning should be done soon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[1] http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/fighting-in-kirkuk-threatens-u-s-canadian-efforts-to-defeat-isis-1.4357964

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/05/iraqi-army-claims-recapture-islamic-state-isis-held-areas-hawija

[3] http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/16/if-trump-wants-to-confront-iran-he-should-start-in-kirkuk/

[4] https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/isis/1.817709

[5] https://www.albawaba.com/news/iraqi-forces-recapture-25-kirkuk-villages-isis-1028378

[6] http://www.rudaw.net/english/analysis/19092017

[7] https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/islamic-state-collapse-on-the-battlefield-1.3255019

[8] http://www.rudaw.net/english/analysis/19092017

[9] Wikimedia Commons

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 by Sara Huzar

Humvees: Taliban’s new VBIED

The Afghan Taliban has deployed a new weapon in its fight against the Afghan National Security Forces: explosive-laden Humvees. The trend started in late September when a Humvee was detonated outside Maroof district police headquarters in Kandahar and came to a violent head this week[1]. Attacks in Kandahar, Farah, and Balkh left 58 security officers dead and at least nine more wounded[2]. Two days prior, a Humvee bombing in Paktia killed 52[3]. The method is a cross between standard car bombs and the ISIS tactic vehicle ramming. Attackers drive the vehicle into their target and detonate it, sometimes following with an additional firearm assault. Thus far, the targets have always been police and military bases. The three most recent attacks of this variety were part of a larger wave of violence against police and government facilities that killed over 100 security forces across the country [4].

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgOUwYlWq0Y

Humvees are large, off-road vehicles, a product of AM General, a defense contractor based in South Bend, Indiana[1]. The US government has often contracted them to manufacture Humvees, a term short for High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs), for the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police[2].

So how do these weapons wind up being used by the Taliban against these forces? The most likely explanation is that the vehicles are seized when the Taliban seizes the military bases housing them[7].  One Afghan military analyst, Mohammad Agul Mujahed, proposed that a so-called “fifth pillar,” a rumored sect of the saboteurs within the Afghan government was selling the Humvees to Taliban forces[8], but claims like these are controversial[9]. The US and NATO have also long had problems with supplies being stolen en route to their destinations in Afghanistan, but these instances of theft have always involved smaller items like boots, army uniforms, and night vision goggles, nothing even approaching the size of a Humvee[10].

Taliban used two Humvees and one Ford Ranger (military Vehicles) to conduct a deadly attack on October 17 killing Paktia Police chief and 43 other Afghan soldiers.

Whatever the source, Taliban Humvees represent a new development in a worrying trend of ANSF equipment falling into enemy hands. Terrorist groups like ISIS[11] and Jaish-e-Mohammad[12] have dressed in stolen security force uniforms and driven stolen army vehicles to mask their attacks in the past. Such tactics raise concerns about ensuring the security of ANSF equipment. Especially concerning is the lack of a set method for tracking whether or how much equipment has gone missing in Taliban raids. Without that information, all that can be said for certain is that Afghanistan’s security forces are facing a new threat of unknown magnitude.

 

Sources:
[1] “Suicide Car Bomb Kills At Least 12 Afghan Police” Reuters, (September 28, 2017).
[2] Sultan Faizy and Shashank Bengali, “Using a Grim New Tactic — the Humvee Bomb — Taliban Kill 43 in Attack on Afghan Army Camp” Los Angeles Times, (October 19, 2017).
[3] Faizy and Bengali, “Using a Grim New Tactic” (October 19, 2017).
[4] Amir Shah “Afghan Taliban launch twin suicide bomb attack on Kandahar army base killing at least 43 soldiers” Independent, (October 19, 2017).
[5] “Our Story” AM General. http://www.amgeneral.com/our-story/ (October 19, 2017).
[6] “AM General To Build 1,673 Humvees for ANSF by 2017” http://www.bakhtarnews.com.af/eng/security/item/24094-am-general-to-build-1673-humvees-for-ansf-by-2017.html?tmpl=component&print=1 (October 19, 2017).
[7] Gulabudin Ghubar “Taliban Seizing Humvees To Use As Vehicle Bombs” Tolo News, (October 9, 2017).
[8] Ghubar “Taliban Seizing Humvees” (October 9, 2017).
[9] Muhammad Hassan Khetab “5th pillar term’ being used for political gains: Lawyers” Pahjwok Afghan News, (October 6, 2015).
[10] Eloise Lee “This Is How More Than 15,000 Containers Of NATO Military Gear Are Stolen Each Year” Business Insider, (April 6, 2012).
[11] Jon Sharman “Suicide bomb and gun attacks on Iraqi restaurants and a police checkpoint kill at least 60 people” Independent, (September 14, 2017)
[12] Deepshikha Ghosh and Vishnu Som “Terrorist Pretended To Be Soldier, Then Turned His Gun On CRPF” NDTV (October 3, 2017).

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