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September 25, 2018October 12, 2018 by Ben Maalouf

An Invisible Problem in Plain Sight

Riot police patrol Zhanaozen in December.

Within the realm of counter-terror, governments focus on preventing attacks at the source as well as at the target. Often, western governments define the target as their own backyard.

Likewise, they define the source as some far-off region at war. That point of view is not illegitimate. However, experts recognize extremist ideology is on the march across north and west Africa, southeast Asia, and Eurasia. And attacks tend to be on government or religious targets within the attacker’s own region.

Before an ISIS-linked cell in Tajikistan killed four cyclists from Switzerland, the Netherlands and the United States there was scant information about the rise of extremism there.

Are we noticing? Well, western media has vested interests in Nigeria and Mali thanks to French and British influence. Similarly, western media have vested interests in the Philippines thanks to former US dependency. But what about Eurasia? Despite emerging from under the Soviet shroud it remains poorly understood. Before an ISIS-linked cell in Tajikistan killed four cyclists from Switzerland, the Netherlands and the United States there was scant information about the rise of extremism there. And yet, when it comes to extremism, Central Asia is now firmly caught between Europe and Asia.

States like Kazakhstan, for example, are experiencing a problem. But not one not for which they can scapegoat immigrants — one from their own backyard. Autocratic Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has kept his state isolated from everything except foreign investment in technology and oil. He has turned Kazakhstan into a regional powerhouse, one in which other Central Asian countries see hope. But Kazakhstan may be on the verge of self-implosion given the rise in extremist ideology and a lackluster response to it. Recent attacks on national guard bases, police stations, and public transportation in oil-rich cities such as Aktobe in the northwest or the cosmopolitan Almaty have revealed socioeconomic and religious fissures that should have been addressed years ago.

We are where we are because the government turned its back on Kazakhstan’s youth.

Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan, is in the midst of a religious revival. After years of Soviet suppression, 70% of Kazakhs identify as Muslim now and there has been a steep rise in ultra-conservative extremist ideology coming from Syria and Iraq. Central Asians feature prominently in infamous attacks in Stockholm, Saint Petersburg, Istanbul, and Boston. They target public events and public transport with methods akin to Al-Qaeda and ISIS. It would be disastrous if small cells like the former connect online with large groups like the latter.

Extremists have hit Kazakhstan’s Central Asian neighbor Uzbekistan the hardest. But Uzbekistan’s security services have been able to repel them outward to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Kazakhstan has proven itself capable of no such strategy.

We are where we are, however, because the government turned its back on Kazakhstan’s youth. Watching their leaders inveigle foreign investment has left young Kazakhs feeling disaffected. Extremism always brings government corruption and poverty and Kazakhstan is no exception.

Extremists have hit Kazakhstan’s Central Asian neighbor Uzbekistan the hardest. But Uzbekistan’s security services have been able to repel them outward to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Kazakhstan has proven itself capable of no such strategy. Experts are questioning its counterterror preparedness and methods. The government’s mission to engage the religious community with proper Islamic literacy may help. But President Nazarbayev’s vast surveillance and his calls to ban the wearing of all black will likely be seen for what they are. They are an encroachment on religion and it could alienate more of the populace. Kazakhstan’s comparably superior quality of life and moderate lifestyle have not immunized it against terror attacks. It is the reaction of its own disaffected people, not someone from a far-off, war-torn land, that reverberates ominously now.

September 22, 2018January 9, 2019 by Kate Kleinle

Lone Wolf Terror

Europe, the US, and the Middle East exist in a moment of unprecedented global tension. In the face of collapsing, budding, and rapidly changing alliances, they share one common enemy: lone-wolf terrorists.

Lone-wolf terrorists are those who operate on their own, without the constraints imposed by an organisation with a structured hierarchy and chain of command. They are “self-radicalized individuals who commit violent acts to promote a cause or support a belief system… they appear to be isolated and avoid many of the traditional organizational characteristics used to identify and track traditional terrorist groups”. They pose an increasing threat to the United States and much of Europe, where most terrorist groups lack a structured presence but still possess the ability to radicalise individual members of society through media and the Internet. Though they may not be “official” members of any terrorist organisations, they often draw their inspiration from such groups, mimicking their tactics and claiming them as inspiration for the attacks.

Because they are isolated individuals, lone-wolf terrorists often lack access to the weapons, funding, and infrastructure possessed by larger terrorist groups. Instead, they use whatever they can find- knives, guns, homemade bombs- to orchestrate small-scale attacks which incite large-scale panic. As explained by Rodger Bates of Clayton State University, “the power of the lone wolf terrorist is not necessarily the actual level of harm potentially experienced, but the level of intimidation that the threat of such random acts of violence can exert on a community”- and that’s exactly what their intention is. Lone-wolf tactics are so effective that ISIS and others have directly encouraged followers worldwide to “pick up a knife, gun or any weapon and become personal warriors for the cause,” shrouding potential victims worldwide in a blanket of constant worry.

A critical factor in creating the large-scale panic these terrorists desire is the media. By focusing in extreme detail on attacks which only affect a small number of people, reporters unwittingly magnify the threat and introduce widespread panic into the public psyche. Knowing that civilians in the Western world are living in constant, subconscious worry of an attack is exactly what radical groups desire, and thus intense media coverage plays right into their hands.

Perhaps even more dangerously, extensive coverage of lone-wolf attacks may encourage more individuals to propagate attacks in the future. Individuals disenfranchised from society, particularly isolated young men, witness how much fame and notoriety lone-wolf attackers receive in the wake of the attack. This encourages them to follow the lead of those who have gone before them, creating a knock-on effect which exponentially increases the threat of terrorism in the long run.

In their quest to prevent these attacks from happening, the challenge to law enforcement lies in their apparent randomness. Because lone-wolf terrorists have few concrete ties to extremist organisations, it is very difficult to preemptively track them down and predict when the attacks will occur. Instead of placing their main focus on individuals who may be radicalised, it may therefore be more productive for law enforcement to target the factor which is most rapidly radicalising them: the media.

In this case, “the media” encompasses a variety of sources. It is important to note that, because lone wolves have little direct access to members of terrorist organisations, most of their radicalisation occurs digitally. This happens through message boards, radicalising videos, and even traditional forms of social media such as Twitter. Policing these more heavily will efficiently cut off a major terrorist recruitment tool, decreasing their reach, exposure, and membership in the long run. Most private social media companies, such as Facebook and Twitter, have stringent rules of use which ban any content encouraging terrorism or violence, but they rely upon a relatively small team of moderators to enforce this, who mainly respond to reports they receive from members and rely upon self-policing among the social media community. Perhaps establishing federal legislation requiring that each social media outlet establishes a team of moderators proportionate to the size of their user body would solve some of this problem, and ensure that posts by radicalising users are more quickly taken down.

But social media is not the only issue, and traditional media exposure is a huge issue as well. As I outlined earlier, extensive media coverage and the 24-hour news cycle can embolden those who view it to join the terrorist organisations being reported on, so networks would be wise to reduce the extensive profiles they often do of lone-wolf terrorists and perhaps even avoid mentioning them by name. As individuals, we can refrain from sharing or clicking on articles about such people, reducing their reach and the chances that their actions could inspire other disillusioned individuals to radicalise in the future.

2018 09 22 Kate Kleinle Pic 300x228 - Lone Wolf Terror

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https://www.voanews.com/a/yemen-s-houthis-want-un-guarantees-for-delegation-as-peace-talks-stall/4562217.html

September 19, 2018October 1, 2018 by Kristine Olsen

Yemeni Violence Escalates as Peace Talks Crumble

Yemen Foreign Minister Khaled al-Yamani walks in a hotel lobby in Geneva, Sept. 7, 2018. https://www.voanews.com/a/yemen-s-houthis-want-un-guarantees-for-delegation-as-peace-talks-stall/4562217.html

UN-sponsored peace talks seemed to provide a ray of hope for Yemen. But within hours of the talks stalling, air-raid alarms blared through the Yemeni city Hodeidah — confirmation that hopes for peace were misplaced. The dead include rebels, government officials, and civilians. The international community must find a way forward for the sake of Yemen’s people.

UN Resolution 2216 called for all parties — Houthi rebels, government representatives, and Saudi-coalition forces — to deconflict and participate in peace talks. The Houthis did not show up for peace talks, however. Unsurprisingly, this angered the Yemeni government. UN Special Envoy Martin Griffiths hosted talks with Yemen’s internationally recognized government despite the Houthi absence. They discussed prisoner releases, humanitarian aid logistics, and a timeline for re-opening the airport.

After three days of one-sided discussion and stalling, Griffiths confirmed that Houthis would not show.

Yemen Minister Khaled al-Yamani felt the UN failed to sufficiently pressure the Houthis to attend the talks and negotiate in good faith. As the rhetoric in Geneva intensified, the Houthis sent word that they skipped the talks because their transport and medical care access demands were inadequately vouchsafed. After three days of one-sided discussion and stalling, Griffiths confirmed that Houthis would not show. He suggested theirs was a logistical travel issue, not a political stance. Insisting that Ansar Allah (Houthi rebels) wanted to be present and were disappointed not to be, he vowed to reschedule talks at a location and time which has yet to be determined. He hopes to meet with Houthi leaders next week.

The talks would have been the first in two years of conflict in Yemen and they would have represented a step toward establishing safety and reducing the humanitarian crisis’s magnitude. Iranian-backed Houthis stormed Yemen in 2014, even taking control of the capital in Sanaa, plunging the country into violence. In 2015 Saudi-Arabia and its allies launched a strong military defense of the internationally recognized Yemeni government. In so doing, it escalated the situation and subjected more than 20 million civilians to the throes of a humanitarian crisis.

UNICEF has reported widespread hunger, disease, and violence impacting more than 11 million children. The EU has called Yemen the worst humanitarian crisis of our time. Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the Middle East. It has no resistance to the devastation the conflict has wrought. The Saudi coalition has bombed schools, hospitals, and infrastructure. As often as not, ammunition supplied to the coalition has come from the US and UK. Of comparable concern is the Houthi strategy of indiscriminately firing into cities and towns, terrorizing civilian populations, The Houthis have also planted hundreds of landmines.

UNHCR and Human Rights Watch have called for independent investigations into the actions of participants from all sides.

The crossfire has killed protected populations including activists, journalists, and aid workers in addition to civilians. Coalition and Houthi forces have stalled and stolen aid at the ports. UNHCR and Human Rights Watch have called for independent investigations into the actions of participants from all sides.

More than anyone, it is the people of Yemen who suffer as the Shia-affiliated Houthi and the Sunni-aligned Saudi coalition slug it out. Limited enforceable legal protections leave women and children especially vulnerable. It is critical that the peace talks move forward. Humanitarian aid and reconstruction in Yemen must resume at once.

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September 14, 2018September 14, 2018 by Roberto Malta

Latin American Military Dictatorships

http://freethoughtmanifesto.blogspot.com/2013/03/operation-condor.html

The period from 1964 – 1990 is a dark chapter in Latin American history.

The period from 1964 – 1990 is a dark chapter in Latin American history. Nearly all of the countries in the region were engulfed by the Cold War, and with American support, many overturned their democratically elected leaders. They turned to military dictatorships in what was an extension of the Red Scare, i.e. a paranoia regarding communist politicians and parties. Of these countries, three are of particular relevance due to their size and the violence of their regimes: Brazil, Argentina, and Chile.

The military took power in Brazil in 1964. This coup d’état deposed the elected government of Joao Goulart, who was perceived as having been a communist. Gradually, the general-presidents restricted civil and political rights. This culminated in the issuance of Institutional Act Number Five. AI-5 was a major decree that allowed the military to interfere as it wished in any level of Brazilian city or state government. It could even gerrymander its localities. AI-5 suspended constitutional guarantees, including those protecting Human Rights. Institutionalized torture became part of the state’s modus operandi. The regime was responsible for 191 deaths, 243 disappearances, and more than 50,000 arrests in a brutal season of oppression.

Security forces, right-wing death squads, along with military elements all went after socialists, left-wing guerrillas, and populist Peronists.

Argentina endured a similar convulsion. 10 years after Brazil’s lurch toward dictatorship, an Argentinian military junta took power. Unlike Brazil, in Argentina, the focus was on killing not on torture. The military junta launched what became known as The Dirty War on its opponents. Security forces, right-wing death squads, along with military elements all went after the opposition. Opponents included socialists, left-wing guerrillas — known as Montoneros — and the populist Peronists. As many as 22,000 Argentines were either killed, dumped into the river Mar del Plata, or disappeared into clandestine detention camps.

Estimates hold Pinochet responsible for the deaths of 10,000 – 30,000 Chileans.

A year before Argentina’s coup d’état, Chile had its own. It was 1973, and with American support, the Chilean military bombed the Chilean presidential palace. The incumbent, the leftist president Salvador Allende, reportedly committed suicide — albeit under circumstances so suspicious they remain under investigation today. What followed until 1990 was an end of civilian rule and the rise of Augusto Pinochet. During this time, repression of the population was rampant. Estimates hold Pinochet responsible for the deaths of 10,000 – 30,000 Chileans.

With extreme-right wing movements resurgent the world over, including in Latin America, it behooves us to reflect on the past’s pain and suffering. This is to say nothing of the economic woes that the appearance of right-wing military dictatorships augurs. When we forget history we doom ourselves to repeating it. Today, tools such as social media, international law, and prosecution of human rights violators act as a bulwark against abuses. However, populations must remain vigilant. The international community must rebuff any prospect of a brutal regime take-over to avoid irreparable losses. May Latin American military dictatorships remain a dark part of history and not a resurgent part of our present, or worse, our future.

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https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/03/violent-crime-in-sao-paulo-has-dropped-dramatically-this-may-be-why

September 10, 2018September 28, 2018 by Roberto Malta

Latin America: Transcending the Crime Epidemic

Police reform has contributed to an improvement in public safety in São Paulo.

Despite milestones like 2012’s peace agreement between the Colombian government and FARC rebels, Latin America remains a region fraught with unconventional conflict. We are not talking about guerrilla war. As institutionalized state oppression largely becomes a memory – most of the region’s military dictatorships crumbled in the wake of the Cold War – homicides have become the most common form of violence. High murder rates, driven by daily criminal activity, plague Latin American streets.

43 of the globe’s 50 most murderous cities are concentrated in Latin America.

Civil violence in Latin America is a sad reality. The region includes 43 of the globe’s 50 most murderous cities. El Salvador has the highest murder rate per capita, earning it the dubious distinction Murder Capital of the World. Furthermore, Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon and his War on Drugs have let loose state security and police forces on organized criminals. This has led to unprecedented levels of violence. For the first time in its history, Mexico will be among the world’s top 20 most murderous countries.

Despite staggering murder rates and the heavy hand of organized crime, some parts of Latin America are showing promise. Previous comments notwithstanding, the murder rate in El Salvador dropped an impressive 26% between 2016 and 2017. Yet despite being significantly below even 2015 levels, it is still high enough to stay in the global top spot. Honduras saw a 28% drop in its homicide rate during the same period. Guatemala and Belize reported similar reductions, lighting a beacon of hope that the continent can overcome the violence that plagues it.

Sao Paulo’s conspicuous reduction in criminal activity is intriguing. Usually it is the largest cities that have the most crime.

Brazil, on the one hand, reported an uptick in murder per capita. And on the other hand, Brazil and Latin America’s largest city, Sao Paulo with its 12 million inhabitants, followed the declining pattern reported in El Salvador and Honduras. There, the murder rate declined from 52.5 per 100,000 inhabitants in 1999, to 6.1 in 2017 – 5 times lower than the Brazilian national average. Nearly every type of crime has declined there during this period. Sao Paulo’s conspicuous reduction in criminal activity is intriguing. Usually it is the largest cities that have the most crime. Thus, it is important to understand how Sao Paulo achieved this drop. Hopefully other areas can replicate its strategy and its results.

So, how did they do it? Well, where Mexico reportedly increased state-supported violence and suppression, Sao Paulo improved accountability around policing (one in four murders there is perpetrated by police), limited the sale of alcohol after 11 pm, and created economic opportunities for unemployed youth. El Salvador has instituted strong criminal justice reforms.

No doubt there remains much to be done. However, these examples illustrate that political will, sound policy, and transparency can help Latin America turn its problems around. Other localities therein would do well to take note: structural, and social reforms reduce conflict better than meeting brutality with more brutality.

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September 9, 2018October 1, 2018 by Kate Kleinle

How Foreign Critics Led the IRA to Disarm

For more than half of the 20th century, violent conflict between pro-British Unionists and Irish Nationalists – a period referred to as the Troubles – decimated communities across British-controlled Northern Ireland and the self-governing Republic of Ireland.

Violence even occasionally spilled over into England itself. In counties bordering Northern Ireland and the Republic, violence was an everyday phenomenon. Crossing the border often proved a fateful endeavor. Much of the violence was driven by the IRA, or Irish Republican Army, an organization determined to end British rule of Northern Ireland and restore political autonomy to all of Ireland’s 32 counties.

Though their aim was noble, they used violence – including bombings, kneecappings, and violent intimidation – to achieve it.

At the height of IRA violence, their bloody campaign instilled terror in the Irish people, claiming hundreds of innocent lives. Irish people with relatives in Northern Ireland, like my grandparents, were thwarted from communicating with or visiting family across the border. Crossing in the wrong sort of car, or entering the wrong neighborhood would guarantee harm at the hands of violent nationalists. Things carried on this way for half a century.

If the IRA was so powerful, why has it ceased to be a source of violence in the 21st century? After declaring a ceasefire in 2005, the IRA lost its status as a major Irish political player. The IRA’s r reasons for disarming are complex, but they are entwined with events outside of Ireland, surprisingly.

It’s not too much to suggest that Irish-Americans were complicit in the deaths of hundreds of Irish civilians.

Irish-American support buoyed the IRA throughout its history, even as its leadership faltered, and its mission’s clarity flagged. IRA allies across the Atlantic ranged from middle-class Americans of Irish descent to Irish expatriates, and even to high-ranking members of the US Congress. Such ideological and financial support held powerful sway over IRA activities.

Preceding a 1970s crackdown, these were the IRA’s primary sources of funding. As such, Irish-American sentiment had a clear connection to IRA tactics. For decades, this informal Irish American lobby aided and abetted the IRA’s bloody pursuit of independence. It’s not too much to suggest Irish-Americans were complicit in the deaths of hundreds of Irish civilians.

77199662 beltelceasefire - How Foreign Critics Led the IRA to Disarm

The Belfast Telegraph headline on the day of the IRA ceasefire in 1994

9/11 reminded Irish-Americans how painful terrorism is.

The 1990s and early 2000s brought about an ideological shift. After decades of support, an increasing number of Irish-Americans shunned violence in favor of peaceful, political negotiations. 9/11 reminded Irish-Americans how painful terrorism is.

The US government arrested a number of IRA operatives trafficking weapons on American soil. And three IRA bombers were arrested in Colombia while training FARC rebels to fight US forces. These developments turned Irish-American opinion against the IRA’s use of terrorism and support for the group waned.

As the IRA lost American funding and connections, the pressure to disarm mounted. The loss of the Irish-American street wasn’t the only consideration in the IRA’s disarmament, but it surely factored into the 2005 decision.

These are not bygone days we’re discussing. These shifts occurred in the 21st century, and as such the implications are profound. Foreign support was crucial to the IRA’s survival. Likewise, it is integral to the operations of terrorist organizations like ISIS and Latin American cartels. Foreign support comes from individual donors, government agencies, and front charities. Even Bitcoin has become a means of financing extremism as terrorist organizations increase their reach and diversify their resources. Foreign money and connections are used for weapons, education, outreach. Absent these resources, all these activities would be limited.

Undermining terrorism by cutting off foreign support is demonstrably effective. If we’re serious about ending radicalism, we must penalize overseas supporters as ardently as we oppose terrorists themselves.

The War on Terror tends to focus on terrorist recruitment, disarmament, and direct combat. But it must also address the connections terrorist organizations have to secondary agencies funding them. In the case of the IRA, by cutting off foreign support was demonstrably effective.

If we’re serious about ending radicalism, we must penalize its overseas supporters as ardently as we oppose terrorists themselves. This works, whether the supporters are Saudi officials, European civilians, or members of the Irish-American middle class.

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http://www.humanosphere.org/world-politics/2015/06/sahel-drought-displacement-and-conflict-leave-20-million-food-insecure/

September 8, 2018October 1, 2018 by Kate Kleinle

Famine and Terror: A Warning from Africa’s Sahel Region

famine and climate change are making africa a terrorist tinderbox article body image 1406238786 - Famine and Terror: A Warning from Africa's Sahel Region

The village of Siédougou in Burkina Faso, at the forefront of the Sahel’s climate crisis.

They say the way to a person’s heart is through her (sic) stomach. That may be true because when food runs out hearts turn sour. With climate change’s breakneck pace, food supplies across the globe are in peril. If communities lose the ability to feed themselves then famine results, threatening social stability. We have seen how terrorism fights for a foothold in such cases, intent to capitalize on the discontent.

The Sahel region in Africa is an excellent example. The 3,300-mile swath of land in northern Africa is experiencing rapid desertification. This has plunged it into a state of extreme food insecurity. 20 million of the region’s residents – including 5 million malnourished children – face potential starvation due to the increasingly inhospitable climate. As people starve, conflict and tribalism emerge. Regional stability is destroyed and thousands of lives are lost.

As people starve, conflict and tribalism emerge. Terrorists exploit this state of affairs. Organizations like Al Shabab and Al Qaeda spill across borders from Mauritania to Sudan.

In the Sahel, where jobs are scarce and subsistence farming is becoming impossible, young people are unemployed. Starving, and desperate for something to do, terrorism offers purpose and income. Terrorists exploit this state of affairs, recruiting young people with the promise of food and wages for them and their families.

Massive numbers of young recruits have swollen the ranks of Al Shabab, Al Qaeda, and others across the Sahel. The organizations end up spilling across national borders from Mauritania to Sudan. The region has become a figurative tinderbox, ready to explode.

famine and climate change are making africa a terrorist tinderbox article body image 1406239044 - Famine and Terror: A Warning from Africa's Sahel Region

French troops on patrol during Operation Serval in Mali, 2013.

The Sahel is one example of the link between extreme climate and extremist ideology. As the Earth warms and our climate further destabilizes the correlation will surely become more conspicuous. Desertification is extremely difficult to reverse, inspiring the UN to call it the greatest environmental challenge of our time. One-third of the Earth’s population may be at risk, threatening food and social instability like we’ve seen in the Sahel.

One-third of the Earth’s population may be at risk. If even a fraction of those affected seeks shelter in the ranks of terrorist organizations, the world will face an epidemic.

If even a fraction of those affected seeks shelter from the instability in the ranks of terrorist organizations, then the world will face a legitimate epidemic within as well as beyond the borders of those regions initially affected.

It is too late to reverse climate change. It is unrealistic to advocate for policies extreme enough to reverse desertification (most countries don’t even meet emissions targets). However, we can avoid the extremism associated with climate change through developmental reform. By changing peoples’ reactions to warming climates we can mitigate their turning to terrorist organizations for survival.

Better jobs for the good of the community, microloans, and sustainable farming can help stem harm.

Development is the solution that will stem the tide of extremism. Paul Melly, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House, explains how causes of regional conflict in desertification zones like the Sahel can be boiled down to, “…poverty, lack of economic options, and resultant frustration.”

But the international community can help give these people options. Governments, NGOs and the private sector can ensure those who want it can get the education they need. This can lead to better jobs doing work people enjoy for the good of their community rather than tearing it asunder. Surely microloans, sharing means of sustainable farming, and helping develop irrigation systems can help stem harm. These are all alternative solutions to very real problems in rapidly desertifying regions, at least in the short-term.

Hearing locals when they explain how we can help them address the causes of their frustration is a surefire way to show them there are options other than joining terrorist groups. In so doing, the international community has the power to save lives, stop war, and make the world a safer place in the long run.

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