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November 24, 2021November 25, 2021 by Joan McDappa

The Refugee Crisis at the Belarus-Poland Border

With the recent happenings on the global scenes, especially in Belarus and Poland, one can fully understand the term global community. A decade after the Arab Spring that led to the breakdown of peace and order in the MENA region, creating opportunities for extremists to take advantage of, the world still feels the impact.

For Europe, the continuing effect of the conflicts in the MENA has resulted in an increased influx of refugees seeking asylum or illegal entry into the region. In 2015, the world witnessed a frightening situation involving immigrants fleeing and attempting to enter Europe through the Mediterranean Sea. Unfortunately, a tragic result ensued, thousands of people lost their lives in the process. Humanitarian concerns led and, in some cases, compelled countries in the European Union to offer asylum to these immigrants.

Refugee Crisis or Hybrid War?

Six years later, Europe seems to be facing what the world terms a refugee crisis. However, some believe that the term “refugee crisis” is inappropriate in light of the current situation.

Reports claim that immigrants, from Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, etc., have been airlifted by the Belarus government and subsequently abandoned at the borders of neighboring countries, especially Poland. The European Union and its allies consider Belarus’ actions as nothing but a tactic in a hybrid war that seeks to undermine security and perhaps cause a provocation.

Belarus continues to deny any involvement. However, immigrants claim to have received help from the Belarusian military to illegally enter Poland in the middle of the night, thereby implicating Belarus.

Whatever the case, the undisputed fact remains that a blatant exploitation of immigrants and their situation is occurring as a result of a miserable struggle of hegemony between two blocs.

Poland, even in normal circumstances, is opposed to accepting refugees from these regions in their country. The current administration of Mateusz Morawiecki has made no reservations concerning its stand against Islamic immigrants and its commitment to preserving the Christian culture of its society.

The Future of the Crisis

In the last few days, immigrants stranded at the Polish borders have resorted to violence, prompting an even harsher response from Polish security. With support from the European Union, it is improbable that Poland will open its borders to these immigrants, who have become understandably frustrated and increasingly violent. On the other hand, Belarus continues to welcome immigrants from the Middle East.

The complexity of this crisis is apparent, and the possibility that it could spiral into something much worse is imminent if swift action is not taken.

At this point, forcing Poland to accept immigrants is unlikely to yield positive results. On the contrary, with almost zero tolerance for other religions, especially Islam, within its society, internal conflicts could arise from hate crimes and reprisals, should they decide to accept immigrants across their borders.

Increased tensions in the European Union and, of course, the international community are likely to occur. However, whether or not this provocation from Belarus and ‘hybrid war’ would spin into confrontations among countries rests in the actions of the nation’s leaders.

A Lesson for the World

If there are any lessons to be learned from this, it is that a crisis in the faraway Middle East or Africa can impact global security. Therefore, now more than ever, the international community must collaborate with conflict-torn countries to restore peace and order.

Failure to prioritize promoting peace in fragile regions will lead to further displacements and more threats to the domestic security and interests of stable regions in the world.

Joan McDappa, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow at Rise to Peace

November 23, 2021November 26, 2021 by Chris Ynclan Jr

Prioritizing the Evacuation of High-Risk Afghans

With the last American troops leaving Afghanistan this year, there are many questions regarding what the future holds for the Central Asian country. Afghanistan has been beset with conflict for much of recent memory, which has been to the detriment of its citizens. They have once again been put under the harsh rule of the Taliban, erasing years of progress for Afghan rights. Since this has occurred, their future has been thrown into danger and uncertainty.

Women’s Rights

While the Taliban has eroded much of the progress made in the past two decades, it is important to acknowledge previous achievements. Chief among them has been the increase in the number of women educated within Afghanistan. This achievement has allowed generations of young women to take advantage of opportunities, benefiting both themselves and their families.

Moreover, there has been a decrease in the infant mortality rate within Afghanistan with the help of the USAID. However, without a meaningful attempt by the international community to address these issues, the country will likely backslide in these key areas, which have proven instrumental in the progress made thus far.

Taliban Reprisals

More troublingly, the Taliban has engaged in a campaign of reprisals of those who worked with the United States and those deemed as subversive to their ideology. A prime example of this violent campaign was the attack on an interpreter’s brother by the Taliban to send a message to their perceived enemies.

Such attacks are not isolated incidents but rather an attempt to consolidate their power without any opposition to their radical governance. Although there have been successful evacuations of high-risk Afghans out of the country, a significant population remains left behind.

Economic and Political Challenges

In the aftermath of the American withdrawal, the country has faced economic and political woes due to the power vacuum created by Ashraf Ghani fleeing the country. This instability has caused the local currency to depreciate at an alarming rate, thus creating a dire situation for Afghans. To make matters worse, many Afghans are on the verge of starvation as food prices exponentially increase.

It is evident that such instability is troublesome for the region and, more importantly, for the Afghans themselves. This instability will also weaken the state from protecting against the onslaught of attacks from more radical extremist groups, such as ISIS-K. Therefore, it is imperative for policy to be enacted to remedy the situation and ensure the safety of Afghan nationals.

The United States’ Impact

Because the United States has evacuated its military from Afghanistan, it has lost considerable leverage within politics; however, this does not mean that they have run out of policy options. Once the Taliban is unable to feed those under their governance and are defunct of international financial funds, the United States can use its soft power within international organizations to renew negotiations. By doing so, the United States would be able to operate from a position of strength in which they can advocate for policy that would ensure Afghans’ well-being.

Such policies which would ensure this outcome would include the participation of Afghans who share opposing views within their government. Considerable resources have been expended to extract and evacuate Afghans with the highest risk of Taliban retaliation.

However, due to the number of individuals who have worked in the United States during the war, it would be logistically impossible to retrieve everyone. These policies would allow for their safety to be guaranteed through negotiations. The United States should also advocate for the safe evacuation of the last remaining operations underway, to evacuate Afghans at highest risk of attack. The Taliban government would also have to make a commitment to ensure the human rights of its citizens under the aforementioned policy regime.

Looking Forward

These policies potentially represent the last remaining window to ensure the Afghans’ safety and well-being of those who have spent their lives enveloped by conflicts. The dire situation has the possibility of devolving into a humanitarian crisis on par with that of Yemen. Moreover, the lack of capital by the Taliban would most certainly lead to the growth of groups like ISIS-K, who would be able to gain permanent footholds in the regions of the country with the harshest terrain.

The policies would also provide the last possibility of a democratic Afghanistan, where Afghans would be able to decide their future for the first time in decades. More importantly, the country would not forgo the progress which has been made through the sacrifices of both Americans and Afghans alike.

Chris Ynclan, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow at Rise to Peace

Ahmad Shah Mohibi, Founder of Rise to Peace

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November 22, 2021November 24, 2021 by Ahmad Mohibi

The Liverpool Attack: A Need for Community-Based Counter-Terrorism Efforts

The Liverpool bombing on Remembrance Sunday has once again raised questions about the U.K. Counter-Terrorism Prevention Program. The alacrity with which these attacks have occurred in recent times has once again highlighted the rise of extremism in the Western world.

Just before the national two minutes of silence commenced on Sunday, November 14^th, a taxi exploded outside the Liverpool Women’s Hospital. The taxi driver, who locked the taxi doors before the attacker could escape and prevented him from entering the hospital, has been released from the hospital. The attacker, Emad al-Swealmeen, has been declared dead.

Four men have been arrested under the Terrorist Act but have since been released from custody. Counter-Terrorism Police detectives have stated that they are keeping an open mind so far.

Home Secretary Priti Patel has confirmed that the United Kingdom’s threat level has been raised to “severe;” indicating that an attack is now judged to be “highly likely.” The Liverpool bombing closely follows another incident that rocked the country last month when conservative MP David Amess was stabbed to death in a shocking event described as a terrorist incident.

A miasma of uncertainty and fear surrounds the United Kingdom. Four people have been arrested on suspicion of being connected to the Liverpool bombing, while Ali Harbi Ali has been charged with the murder of Amess. Ali has also been accused of preparing terrorist acts.

The Rise of Islamist Extremist Groups in the West

In the last 20 years, various Islamist extremist groups have sought to spread their message through various ways, with radicalisation being the prime intention. The West has been accused of slowly malforming the culture and the religion, and this has further radicalised lone-wolves. In addition, the extent of social media and various online platforms carries with it certain banes, and terrorist groups have found it easier to convey their message through such platforms.

The Liverpool attack has once again sharply brought the focus onto the United Kingdom’s Counter-Terrorism Prevention Program. Despite various new initiatives and strategies to counteract terrorism (including the Prevent scheme as part of the Contest strategy), the U.K. continues to act as a hotbed for consistent terrorist activities.

In 2005, four coordinated attacks were carried out by Islamic terrorists in London, which killed 52 people. This was the country’s first Islamist suicide attack, the impact of which continues to reverberate to this day. In 2017, an Islamic extremist detonated a bomb that killed 23 people following an Ariana Grande concert.

The Militarisation of Counter-Terrorism and the Neglect of Community-Based Approaches

However, the Liverpool bombing has once again revived the discussion around the impact of U.K. counter-terrorism programs.

The U.K. response to the rise in extremist attacks has been met with efforts to train and equip a Counter Terrorist Police Force in the hopes to meet terrorist attacks with immediacy. However, the elite group of firearms officers portrays a militarised approach to counter-terrorism. While this may be effective in deterring attacks when they happen, they do little to address the push and pull factors of radicalisation.

In May of this year, Al Jazeera released a report assessing a mental health program run by the U.K. Counter-Terrorism Police. Disturbing facts have been revealed in that report. The “Vulnerability Support Hubs,” as they have been termed, were utilised as a way of tracking and accessing sensitive medical information on certain people. As a result, Muslims with poor mental health have come under heavy scrutiny.

An additional argument regarding the U.K.’s approach to counter-terrorism is that it could do more to be proactive, rather than reactive. The West Midlands Counter-Terrorism Unit documents that 80% of their investigations connected to seized weaponry stem from Islamist extremists. Far-right extremists comprised a fifth of their investigations. However, in the last two years, far-right extremism has been rapidly increasing. Should this trend continue, the U.K. must act promptly to implement effective counter-terrorism policies across various religions, socio-economic groups, and ethnicities.

Origins of extremist behavior need to be analyzed and combatted before meeting the point of seizing weaponry. The U.K. must raise active involvement by civil society, religious communities, their respective leaders, teachers, and doctors to preemptively recognizing and addressing extremist behaviors.

The U.K. must steer clear from inflammatory rhetoric, evidenced in areas of Europe, in an effort to avoid alienating certain minorities, thus risking the loss of their cooperation.

The Need to Build Trust and Confidence

The U.K. must put more thought into building trust and confidence between its wide range of communities and counter-terrorism units. There is no denying that every program will have its setbacks and challenges. The aim should be to educate the masses and build trust. There should be an emphasis on a more open counter-terrorism program that offers civil-society a chance to approach counter-terrorism units with independent research and recommendations to compliment the law enforcing element, as opposed to militarizing it entirely.

Abhinav Anand, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow at Rise to Peace

Carla Bilson, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow at Rise to Peace

Ahmad Shah Mohibi, Founder of Rise to Peace

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November 22, 2021 by Joan McDappa

What Measures Should be Taken to Counter Nigeria’s Insecurities?

Nigeria has benefited from several projects and programs, all aimed at resolving the issue of insecurity including, addressing identified root causes and engendering factors. While these efforts seem promising, over time, one realizes its temporal traits. Being a significant player with yielding influence in Africa, Nigeria must understand all that is at stake for the continent if it fails to address its internal problems.

Insecurity in Nigeria

Since its independence, Nigeria has experienced, at an ever-increasing pace, a series of conflicts and insurgencies. These conflicts have turned the budding land in the Sahel to a leading figure on the list of unstable regions in the continent. From political violence to ethnoreligious conflicts, social agitations, resource conflicts, and now radical extremism, the nation continues to navigate these issues in hopes of survival.

Having survived a terrifying civil war, as well as spates of violence and conflicts, one would expect that Nigeria’s resilience will lead to stability. But in reality, this is not the case, as fears that the worst is yet to come remain strong. It was, therefore, no surprise to many when events of extremism began to gradually build up in the northern region of Nigeria, with Boko Haram taking the lead.

In 2002, Mohammed Yusuf, a famous preacher and proponent of the Izala sect of Islam and the founder of Boko Haram, began to radicalize his followers in Maiduguri, Nigeria. Establishing a religious center and an Islamic school, Yusuf reached many people from poor backgrounds across the country. In no time, Yusuf’s teachings attracted many followers and expanded into other states including Yobe, where it established a base nicknamed ‘Afghanistan.’ The ‘Afghanistan’ base (just like other operation bases) enjoys a geographical advantage, as it is within close proximity to Nigeria’s borders, thus aiding their expansion into neighboring West African countries.

Responses to Insecurity and Terrorism

Almost always, the first response to quell reports of security disruptions in Nigeria is the use of force. Following this response is an attempt to create a lasting solution through program developments, usually aimed at management and recovery.

Many of these initiatives, such as the NYSC scheme (introduced in the aftermath of the civil war), the Amnesty program (focused on ending militancy in the Niger Delta), and the de-radicalization program, all fail to address root causes; instead, they manage the situation for as long as possible.

Consequently, we see a resurgence of the same issues across Nigerian regions: in eastern Nigeria, there is a reawakening of secession agitations by Biafra, in the Niger Delta, an increasing rate of crime and kidnappings, and in the North East, terrorism is growing with reports of abductees willingly returning to their captors.

Recommendations

Nigeria’s rising insecurity may remain unresolved until the government understands the importance of engaging and collaborating with relevant stakeholders in the country. Thus, while external aid has its role, the outcome may not be as desired, until every group in the country bears its responsibility and the right environment to execute them is created.

Collaborate with CSOs

Civil society and humanitarian organizations have been present in Nigeria for decades, closely collaborating with the Nigerian government to maintain security and stability. Their role in Nigeria’s security largely revolves around responding to conflict situations by offering relief support, spearheading mediation and reconciliation, and rehabilitating victims and perpetrators.

While these are commendable efforts, the government and these organizations need to take progressive steps to ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place to identify and address early warning signs of extremism and incitement.

Community Engagement

The role of the community has largely been ignored in Nigeria’s decision-making system, regardless of it being a democratic nation. A review is essential with relevant measures made effective immediately. The government should fully engage communities in various approaches to counter violent extremisms, as well as identify and prevent future cases.

Deliberate efforts to ensure a balanced representation of women and youth in counter-extremism approaches is necessary, as they introduce a unique perspective from a largely marginalized and vulnerable population.

Contingency Plans

As a nation whose primary responsibility entails protecting the lives and properties of its citizens, expecting a contingency plan is in place at all times is not out of the ordinary. Due to Nigeria’s porous borders, Boko Haram and other extremist groups are in an advantageous position. Unfortunately, even with the lessons learned from Boko Haram, Nigeria’s borders remain largely unprotected.

Address Root Causes

The impoverished state of the country and the northern regions, alongside poor tenets of its society, are some factors that aid extremists’ growth. Time and time again, we have seen extremist groups all over the world garner support from citizens by providing basic amenities that governments fail to supply. Some abductees who willingly returned to Boko Haram camps after being freed by Nigerian soldiers cited the harsh economic conditions as the reason they rejoined. The government must rise to its responsibility in driving development in Nigeria.

In addition to developmental challenges, other root causes such as intolerance and marginalization remain unaddressed. Intolerance remains a bane in Nigeria and is the bedrock for the many ethnoreligious conflicts and radicalism that Nigeria has suffered over the years. The government, alongside relevant national stakeholders, must find ways to address these root causes and allot as much attention to these challenges as they do for terrorist acts.

Conclusion

Resolving insecurity and terrorism in Nigeria does not require additional funds or aid; all that is needed is a reformation of its systems, structures, and values. Merely formulating policies without a system that allows and ensures effective implementation would yield no result; this remains the case with Nigeria.

Joan McDappa, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow at Rise to Peace

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November 20, 2021 by Ahmad Mohibi

ISIS-K Grows as the Taliban Struggles to Maintain Power

According to a senior Afghan intelligence officer who spoke with Rise to Peace, ISIS of Khorasan (ISIS-K) is growing rapidly in the Char Bolak district of the Balkh province in Afghanistan, notably since the Taliban’s takeover. Recently, ISIS has claimed responsibility for two other attacks, one occurring outside of a women’s hospital in Liverpool, U.K., killing only the ISIS member himself. The second attack occurred in Kampala, Uganda, killing three people and injuring 36. These attacks illustrate the rapid expansion of ISIS’s growth and activities.

Additionally, ISIS-K’s attacks have been characterized by violent expansion and retrenchment combined with periodic clashes with the Taliban, international forces, and Afghan security forces.

ISIS-K has been responsible for nearly 100 attacks against civilians in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, as well as around 250 clashes with U.S., Afghan, and Pakistani security forces since 2017.

A senior Afghan intelligence officer informed Rise to Peace that ISIS-K is getting stronger due to a concentrated focus on increasing capabilities and power after the recent Taliban takeover. There are no current counter-terrorism operations; however, the previous Afghan government used to have many counter-terrorism resources and operations, such as drone attacks. In addition, due to the Taliban takeover, there is no significant resistance against ISIS-K, leaving them with plenty of room to grow rapidly.

Furthermore, poverty is rampantly increasing in Afghanistan. So, not only does this make people more willing to join a terrorist organization, but also results in former Afghan security forces joining as a means to financially support their families. For example, an Afghan intelligence officer informed Rise to Peace that ISIS-K will pay 15,000 AFG to new recruits with no experience and 25,000 AFG for those with experience. Likewise, many top-level ISIS-K commanders who were captured during the previous five to six years were released after the Taliban takeover.

ISIS-K/Daesh Techniques

ISIS-K’s techniques are known to be chaotic and devastating. ISIS-K strategically creates chaos and uncertainty through guerilla tactics in an attempt to discredit a government’s ability to provide security for its citizens. Additionally, through these tactics, ISIS-K seeks to shift fighters from other groups into their own. Through these efforts, ISIS-K aims to position itself as the leading jihadist organization in the region by recruiting new members, and poaching members affiliated with other groups.

Moreover, ISIS-K engages in various tactics to incentivize recruits, varying from marriage arrangements to threats. One example includes sending out nightly letters to recruit people to join their cause. They have even sent letters to Taliban soldiers, warning them to leave the Islamic Emirate or ISIS-K will assassinate them.

According to a senior Afghan intelligence officer who spoke with Rise to Peace, a new group within ISIS-K operates at night to kill members of the Taliban. The unique aspect about this group is not only do they live seemingly normal lives, fighting at night while continuing to be farmers during the day, but they conduct their operations barefoot. Thus, they have become known as the “barefoot fighters” among locals. The “barefoot fighters'” tactics are comparable to those that the Mujahideen used during their existence, since the Mujahideen were referred to as “guerrillas” or “mountain men” and were similarly excellent in night combat.

Who are the targets?

Ever since ISIS-K’s founding, it has usually targeted Kabul with sophisticated and complex attacks. In the majority of the attacks, ISIS-K has a high proclivity to target civilians whom they regard as infidels of Islam.

Capabilities

Most analysts and researchers, including the United Nations, gauge that ISIS-K’s capabilities have reached about 2,000 fighters, and increased when the Taliban released prisoners from the Afghanistan jail. This amount is somewhat comparable to the Taliban who have around 10,000 fighters at their disposal.

Financial Routes

It is not exactly evident where ISIS-K receives its funding, but the public U.S. government assessments provide the clearest understanding. ISIS-K primarily receives funds by extorting the local population and businesses, taxation, illicit criminal commerce, donations, as well as support from the ISIS-core.

ISIS-K moves its money around the world and throughout Afghanistan via the Hawala. The Hawala is an alternative or parallel transfer system which exists outside of traditional finance channels. Hence, it has been used widely in funding terrorist groups and activities both in Afghanistan and abroad. Further, ISIS-K has cultivated relationships with specific Hawala dealers who store thousands of dollars for them.

The response from the international community

The international community has taken several steps to combat ISIS-K. For example, the UN Security Council established an arms embargo, travel ban, and asset freeze in 2019 against ISIS-K by all UN member states. Additionally, the US government has implemented strategies such as economic sanctions and counter-terrorism efforts to inhibit ISIS-K’s operational and financial capabilities. However, since the Taliban takeover, it has become increasingly difficult for the international community to combat ISIS-K and terrorism financing in general.

Looking forward

With both financial and membership increases, ISIS-K is growing extensively, especially after the recent Taliban takeover. Not only are their attacks violent and chaotic, but they also target civilians to convey their message of jihad.

In order to face the challenges posed by both ISIS-K and terrorism in Afghanistan, the international community needs to strengthen its coordination on impeding terrorism financing in Afghanistan. In addition, concrete steps must be identified and articulated for the Taliban to take against ISIS-K’s financing practices. Ultimately, until the international community is able to create a tangible strategy, ISIS-K will continue to grow in size and power.

Krista Tammila, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow at Rise to Peace

Ahmad Shah Mohibi, Founder of Rise to Peace

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