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Maher al-Agal

What the Death of Maher al-Agal Means for the Future of the Islamic State

Maher al-Agal was killed in a U.S. drone strike in northwest Syria on July 12, 2022. Al-Agal was a top leader of the Islamic State, and his absence from the group leaves the Islamic State without another leader to develop the organization’s goals. Having lost leaders like Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Abu Ibrahim al Hashimi al Qurashi in the past, the Islamic State has recovered relative to the point of continuing attacks. This then poses the question, how will the death of Maher al-Agal impact the Islamic State?

Background of Maher al-Agal and his Rise to Power

Little is known about the life of Maher al-Agal previous to his involvement with the Islamic State. He was formerly a prominent member of the Islamic State in Raqqa when the organization held control of that territory.  In 2020, al-Agal moved to become a member of Turkish-backed factions and lived in the city of Afrin. Al-Agal eventually became a commander in one of those Turkish backed factions titled Jaysh Al-Sharqiyyah, the final position he held for the remainder of his life. According to the U.S. military, al-Agal aggressively worked to develop the Islamic State’s networks internationally.  By the end of his life, al-Agal was considered to be one of the top five leaders of the organization.

The Airstrike that Killed Maher al-Agal

The drone strike that killed al-Agal occurred in northwest Syria, where he was confirmed to be located.  A close associate of  al-Agal’s was seriously injured in the blast as confirmed by the U.S. government.  The target was confirmed to be al-Agal whilst he and his associate were riding a motorcycle in the town of Khaltan. An unconfirmed report by the U.S. military states that the associate eventually died of his injuries.  It has still yet to be confirmed if any civilians were injured or killed in the attack, but sources thus far have said there have not been any civilian casualties.

How Death and Capture of Past IS Leaders Have Impacted the Organization

Prominent leaders of the Islamic State have been killed in different attacks by the U.S., much like that of Maher al-Agal. The former leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed in October of 2019. Baghdadi detonated his suicide vest, ultimately killing himself and three of his children during a pursuit inside a tunnel involving U.S. military canines.  Baghdadi first gained attention in 2014 when he officially declared the Islamic State a caliphate, and it spread throughout Iraq and Syria. Despite the death of Baghdadi, the Islamic State remained and continues to remain a prominent threat throughout the world.

The death of the former leader of the Islamic State, who took leadership after the death of Baghdadi, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, died February 2, 2022. Al-Qurashi had a similar death to Baghdadi; while being chased by U.S. forces, he detonated a suicide vest, resulting in the blast that killed some of his family members and an ISIS deputy.  His death seemed to slow the group in general; however, the organization still held hundreds to thousands of followers by the time Abu Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi was chosen as successor.

Abu Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi only remained the leader of the Islamic State for about three months before his capture by Turkish forces in late May.  Turkish officials claim that during the raid to capture him, their forces did not have to shoot a single bullet. The U.S., still has yet to confirm whether or not the man is, in fact, al-Qurashi.  However, Turkish officials allege that it is him without a doubt. The alleged capture of al-Qurashi still did not stop the Islamic State as the group still remains active throughout the world.

Outlook

Overall, while governments welcome the death of Maher al-Agal throughout the world, it is still unclear how much of an impact this will have on the Islamic State as a whole. The group has suffered thousands of casualties and multiple deaths of its top leaders, yet they continue to push their ideology and grow, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. While this attack will impact the group and could lead to destabilization of the Islamic State as a whole, it is unlikely that the group will continue without a successor for long. It will take a united effort from the international community to help mitigate this crisis. While the death of leaders like al-Agal is a step in the right direction, ultimately, poverty reduction, stabilization of conflict zones, and repatriation and reintegration of foreign terrorist fighters and their families are just some ways to slow the growth of the Islamic State.

 

Claire Spethman, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Drone

A U.S. Drone Strike Kills an al-Qaeda Linked Commander in Syria

On June 27, another drone strike was successfully completed against the leader of an al-Qaeda affiliate group in northern Syria, according to the Syrian Civil Defense, a humanitarian organization. The attack occurred just before midnight when two rockets were fired towards the target.

As claimed by Syrian opposition activists and the U.S. military, the man killed, identified as Abu Hamzah al Yemeni, was a top member of an al-Qaeda-affiliated group.  The drone strike was conducted by a U.S.-led coalition in the northwest province of Idlib.

The U.S. Central Command stated that the attack targeted al Yemeni, a “top leader” of Hurras al-Din, an organization affiliated with al-Qaeda, as he was riding a motorcycle by himself at midnight. Furthermore, the body was then transported to the forensic department in Idlib. According to verified reports, there were no civilian casualties. Additionally, the U.S. Central Command stated that “the removal of this senior leader will disrupt al-Qaeda’s ability to carry out attacks against U.S. citizens, our partners and innocent civilians around the world.”

Overview of the Group Hurras al-din

On February 27, 2018, seven ardent Syrian rebel organizations joined together, actualizing their group which is now known as Hurras al-Din (HaD). In the months that followed the group’s founding, ten additional minor rebel organizations with a history of doctrinal and managerial ties to al-Qaeda joined. Reports estimate that at least 50% of the 700 – 2,500 members of the group are foreigners.

HaD is outspokenly committed to al-Qaeda. Additionally, al-Qaeda veterans from other countries make up the vast majority of HaD’s leadership. These significant ties to al-Qaeda makes HaD part of the watchlists of intelligence agencies, the U.S. government, and think tanks. The leadership of HaD is divided along two differing currents: one that adheres to the ideas of Libyan cleric Jamal Ibrahim Ashityawee al-Musratti and the other that adheres to those of al-Qaeda scholar Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi. The “defining authority” for both currents is the al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.

The Public’s Opinion of the U.S. Drone Strikes

There were mixed comments online as to the recent attack in Syria. Some members of the online community have reiterated that the U.S. is dominating weak countries and committing crimes against humanity due to their Global War on Terror. However, CENTCOM said in its statement that violent extremist organizations, including al-Qaeda-aligned organizations such as Hurras al-Din “continue to present a threat to America and our allies.” It added that al-Qaeda-aligned militants use Syria as a safe haven to coordinate with their external affiliates and plan operations outside of Syria.

 

Kristian N. Rivera, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Child Terrorism

An Overview of Child Terrorism in Syria

One crisis plaguing Syria is the issue and threat of child terrorism. Child terrorism is a reality many Syrian children must face by being born into a war-torn country. No human being is safe, no future is guaranteed, no child can live unscathed. Measures and organized efforts are flourishing and need to be supported and expanded internationally to address and combat child terrorism.

Child Terrorism and Children’s Rights

Terrorist groups are doing their best to teach children that America’s war on terrorism is an act of aggression. Children are particularly vulnerable to military conscription because they are easily manipulated and subjected to violence.

The Syrian Human Rights Network (SNHR) released its 10th annual report on the violation of the rights against Syrian children. According to a report, at least 29,661 children have been killed in Syria, and 5,036 children have been arrested or disappeared.

The Action Plan

U.S. relations with Syria began in 1944 and have since resulted in a long road of support and diplomatic correspondence. Syria has been included on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism since its creation in 1979 due to its continued support of terrorism and terrorist groups, and its pursuit of weapons, missile programs and weapons of mass destruction. Moreover, Syria has continued its efforts to use and develop chemical weapons. Finally, Syria has continuously attempted to undermine U.S. and international efforts to stabilize Iraq and Syria.

Syria is exposed to legal sanctions, including export sanctions under the Syrian Liability Law, and are not eligible to support the U.S. or purchase U.S. military equipment. Following the outbreak of conflict in Syria in March 2011, a follow-up decree was issued against continued violence and human rights violations in Syria.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) signed an Action Plan with the United Nations to prevent the recruitment or use of children under the age of 18. Through the Action Plan, “the SDF commits to end and prevent the recruitment and use of children, identify and separate boys and girls currently within its ranks, and put in place preventative, protection and disciplinary measures related to child recruitment.”

Ultimately, the United Nations dedicates an office to gathering information and reports on how and where children are affected by armed conflict. Additionally, the United Nations has identified six severe violations against children which include, “the recruitment and use of children; the killing and maiming of children; rape and other forms of sexual violence; abduction of children; attack on schools and hospitals; and the denial of humanitarian access.”

The New Child Rights Law

On August 15, 2021 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad introduced a new law, known as Law No. 21, which prohibits the trafficking of children, including child soldiers in Syria. Many organizations recruit children, including the Syrian government.

While the law appears to be an important step in the right direction, many groups, such as the Syrian Center for Accountability and Justice, are skeptical of the law’s actual ability to end the use of child soldiers by militants.

This new law was a crucial win for Syrian children that have been used as a tool and helping them avoid such dark and traumatizing experiences.

Outcomes

An urgent need for an effective solution to the root of the problem of child soldiers must be found. UNICEF is helping approximately 8,700 children released from military service around the world. These rehabilitation and poverty alleviation efforts enable the proper healing of trauma. UNICEF also provides special support to Syrian children through health care, education, and improved living conditions.

Overall, the Action Plan between Syria and the United Nations, as well as the new legislation for the prohibition of child trafficking are a few organized steps that will hopefully make a difference. A global effort is needed to establish peace in a war-torn country that has suffered a myriad of wounds for many years, and ultimately stop its use of child soldiers.

 

Katerina Rebecca Paraskeva, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Syria

An Update on Syria: The Execution of an ISIS Leader and Prison Attacks

In recent news, U.S. efforts against the leader of ISIS, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, resulted in his death via airstrike and was recently reported by the Head of the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism. Despite the death of the ISIS leader, the international community must remember the show of strength ISIL displayed this past January in north-east Syria when they attacked a prison.

The Attack and Collateral Damages 

ISIL’s prison attack occurred on January 20, 2022, lasting for a few days and greatly impacting Syria. The attack attempted to release fighters from al-Hasaka prison, highlighting the need to swiftly bring them to trial and hold ISIL fighters accountable. Ultimately, while the military is an effective tool to combat terrorism, it alone is not sufficient to address all of terrorism’s intricate facets.

Specifically, an example of immediate action stems from ISIS fighters attacking a Syrian prison, which housed some 3,000  fighters and 700 children. While this event was foreseeable, due to the nature of the target, attacks such as this can be minimized through urgent action amongst the entire international community to combat those suspected of being associated with extremist groups in Syria’s prisons and camps.  Deputy Secretary-General Vladimir Voronkov told the UN Security Council that the Islamic State group “emphasized and called for a break in prisons.”

The Result of an Overnight Raid

On early Thursday morning, February 3rd, U.S. President Biden said the ISIS leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Quraishi, was killed in an airstrike conducted by U.S. Special Forces in northwest Syria, killing at least 13 people in the raid. President Biden addressed the use of special forces to attack the ISIS leader, stating that the choice was a tactical decision to minimize civilian casualties, despite a greater risk to U.S. troops.

However, initial reports indicate that al-Quraish installed an explosive device in his apartment on the third floor of the building, which killing several people, according to President Biden and Pentagon officials.

While speaking in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, President Biden explained the story of the ISIS leader, saying that he had ordered a series of atrocities involving the Yezidi. “Thanks to the courage of our soldiers, this terrible terrorist leader no longer exists,” President Biden stated.

Overall, al-Quraish did not initially appear to be a major problem. Intelligence officials spotted him sometime last year while tracking a package in Syria. However, the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in the midst of locating al-Quraish did not appear to be a major problem.

Current Situation and Outcomes

Undersecretary-General Voronkov of the U.N. Security Council urges states to repatriate suspected ISIS fighters and their families from prisons and concentration camps in northeastern Syria. “The repatriation of third country nationals from Syria and Iraq remains a major priority for the United Nations and we stand ready as a reliable partner to member states in responding to these challenges,” Voronkov said.

Although the United Nations has made tremendous progress against ISIS, the group continues to pose threats, so the United Nations must remain vigilant and active.

U.S. Forces are stationed in Syria as part of the United Nations, however, all countries must work with them in the fight against ISIS. In particular, countries should also support the United Nations Global Framework for Refugee Assistance in Syria and Iraq, which was launched in 2021.

While the Russian Federation representative said ISIS fighters raided al-Sina’aprison, ultimately, anyone responsible for the crimes against innocent Syrians should be held accountable. The United Nations and humanitarian partners must demand a full account of any civilian casualties. Syrian forces backed by Moscow will continue to search and attack terrorist groups in Syria.

For 2022, we should anticipate a response from the U.S. and a general, more drastic change of tactics from the previous ones. Now, it is the time to systematically focus and help solve Syria’s dramatic conditions and future threats.

 

Katerina Rebecca Paraskeva, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

COVID-19

Terrorism and COVID-19: An Overview of their Impact on Syria

Syria is mired in poverty and disarray as a result of terrorism, and the impacts of COVID-19 have exacerbated the conditions. Syria needs a comprehensive plan to fight a series of unresolved difficulties after decades of terrorism, civil conflict, poverty, and famine. The largest refugee exodus in history occurred across the country during the previous year.

Desperation and Disarray in Syria

In 2016, 366 terrorist attacks occurred in Syria, and in 2019, more than 10,000 people were killed, and finally, according to the Observatory, in 2020, 6,800 individuals were killed. However, while these numbers are staggering, they do not compare to 2014, Syria’s deadliest year, in which 76,000 people were killed.

2021 marked one decade since Syria’s uprisings erupted; unfortunately, the nation remains impoverished and plagued with violence. It began as ruthless assaults on anti-government demonstrations, evolving into a complicated battleground involving international forces, local militias, and foreign fighters. The conflict also spawned the world’s biggest refugee crisis, with more than half of Syria’s people displaced. There are 5.5 million refugees living primarily in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt, while another 6.7 million are internally displaced.

The confluence of wars and attacks, economic crises, water shortages, and COVID-19 has created an atmosphere of terror and a dire humanitarian situation, according to Martin Griffiths, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. Humanitarian needs in Syria are at their highest as there is an urgent call for a total change in terms of policies and measures to demolish terrorism.

The Brutal Effects of Terrorism 

Terrorism has had a significant influence on oil, which is one of the Middle East’s most important industries. Attacks on oil production have resulted in supply disruptions. Considering ISIS’s primary revenue stream is the illicit sale of oil, Syria became a target for territorial control to gain access to oil wells and establish dominance in the oil market.

Additionally, day-to-day life, such as access to clean water and adequate living conditions, have been impacted by both terrorism and COVID-19 in Syria. However, even though humanitarian conditions have eroded, the Syrian government continues to restrict the distribution of humanitarian aid across the nation.  Roughly 11.1 million of the 17.5 million Syrians required humanitarian aid in 2020.

Of the humanitarian aid that was distributed to Syrians in the first half of 2021, the contributions consisted of food, access to clean water, hospital renovations, hygiene products, and basic essentials.

Notable improvements and humanitarian aid contributions across Syria include, the implementation of a water purification program to 10.5 million individuals across nine governorates; the distribution of food parcels to 1.3 million Syrians and the donation of basic household items, blankets, mattresses, and hygiene kits to 500,00 individuals throughout seven governorates; and the distribution of COVID-19-specific hygiene kits to prevent the spread of the virus. Additionally, thousands of Syrians received vouchers as a means to access food and hygiene products.

Current Outcomes and Future Suggestions

Syria’s current situation is inhumane. According to sources, terrorists belonging to the Islamic State (IS) in Syria appear to be plotting more fatal strikes in 2022. The assessment comes amid an uptick in IS activity in recent weeks, including two strikes in the war-torn country’s eastern and central areas, which the organization has claimed as its own.

Worldwide collaboration is needed to remedy the Syrian crisis. Shortages of basic goods, such as bread and petrol, have become a common concern, and the number of people in need of humanitarian aid climbed by 21% in 2021. Another aspect to consider is the COVID-19 vaccination rate. Currently, only 5% of the country’s overall population has been reported as fully vaccinated, raising questions about the government’s capacity to deliver vaccinations equitably even within its own borders.

Also, calls for Kurdish-led authorities and the U.S.-led coalition to compensate for the civilian casualties inflicted in their fight against the IS is sought to remedy the impact of their attacks in northeastern Syria. Moreover, the individuals with suspected ties to the IS and who continue to remain in camps and prisons must be swiftly investigated to provide answers and mitigate indefinite detentions.

Since the onset of the Syrian conflict in 2011, the U.S. Institute of Peace focused efforts on Syria, but an effective and long-lasting resolution is still lacking. Terrorism is demolishing the country, and the unstoppable attacks over the years make Syria a high priority for help.

 

Katerina Rebecca Paraskeva, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Cyberterrorism

The Rising Threat of Cyberterrorism

The newest form of terrorism is cyberterrorism, which has been a rising threat in the last several years. The fusion of cyberspace with terrorism is known as cyberterrorism, and it refers to illegal assaults and threats of attacks on computers, networks, and the information stored on them that are carried out to intimidate or compel a government or its citizens in the pursuit of political or social goals. Many cyberattacks have been planned, increasingly so after 2011. Specifically, in Syria, several attacks have been organized in cyberspace.

The General Threat of Cyberterrorism

There are many different forms of cyberterrorism, such as weaponizing propaganda and extremist ideology. Additionally, cyberterrorism can facilitate recruitment, radicalization, and prompt terrorist attacks.

Even though there are many different kinds of cyberattacks, many still question the validity of whether cyberterrorism is an existent threat. Since most essential infrastructure in Western nations is connected via computers, the possibility of cyberterrorism is concerning.

Hackers have proved that, while not driven by the same aims as terrorists, anyone may get access to sensitive information and the functioning of critical systems. Terrorists may, at least in principle, follow the hackers’ lead and paralyze advanced countries’ military, financial, and service sectors after breaking into government and commercial computer networks.

Cyberterrorism in Syria and Organized Social Media Cyberattacks

In Syria, there were many attacks planned via cyberspace. Throughout the years, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has adapted its abilities and stayed at the forefront of using the internet for cyberterrorist activities. ISIS declared an Islamic state, or caliphate, over the territory it had conquered in Iraq and Syria in 2014. Simultaneously, a group of hackers claiming to be related to ISIS built a “cyber caliphate.” According to the news, they created a series of online activities that have drawn worldwide attention.

Syria has been the focal point that controlled all the attacks. Plenty of cyberattacks in Europe were exclusively organized in Syria. However, they were directed in real-time over the internet and encrypted online chat platforms from Syria.

In addition, ISIS organized and promoted attacks through social media. In this case, they used social media, such as Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube, to spread their beliefs and synchronize attacks. Since the mid-2000s, the internet has become a common source of national defense and international security threats. Furthermore, the emergence and popularity of social media increased the militancy of a wide range of social groups, including terrorists.

In 2020, the Justice Department, the Department of Homeland Security, and the Department of the Treasury stated that they dismantled multiple cyber-financing schemes by the al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’ military branch, al-Qaeda, and ISIS.  U.S. police confiscated millions of dollars from over 300 cryptocurrency accounts, three websites, and four Facebook pages. This operation represents the government’s largest-ever seizure of cryptocurrency in a terrorism-related case.

Sophisticated cyber-tools were used in all three financing systems, including the solicitation of bitcoin donations from across the world. These efforts by terrorist organizations reveal how they have shifted their terror financing efforts to online mediums. Organizations have resorted to bitcoin and social media campaigns to garner attention and earn funding.

Future Suggestions

The increasing reliance of today’s society on information technology has created a new type of vulnerability, allowing terrorists to attack targets that would otherwise be impregnable. The more technologically advanced a country is, the more exposed its infrastructure is to cyberattacks.

Therefore, one solution to minimize online terrorist financing and increase the cybersecurity of individual states is to create an organized global effort in securing government data from vulnerabilities. In addition, states must stay abreast of the newest technologies and ultimately outpace cyber advances of terrorist organizations, to achieve success.

Overall, states need to increase their investments in cybersecurity, especially considering the ever-evolving and global threat terrorist organizations now pose to cyberspace.

 

Katerina Rebecca Paraskeva, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Repatriation

The Repatriation of European Women and Children

In 2019 there was a major incident of the capture of women and children possibly linked to ISIS. Approximately 1,000 women and children from Europe were imprisoned in camps in northeastern Syria, occurring after the crisis with ISIS.

Major Obstacles for the Repatriation of Children in EU

Diplomatic roadblocks created challenges for Europe to repatriate children. There were countless European and global efforts to resolve the problem of repatriations. However, continued refusals to repatriate children stemmed from legal excuses.

Unfortunately, the inability for the children to identify themselves as European citizens was another crucial obstacle they faced.  It was infeasible to prove their identification, especially under the barbaric and inhumane conditions in the detention camps. This resulted in an urgent call for help for the children to the European states in order to provide a practical solution to the nonexistent legal and identification documents so that they could return home.

European Security Endangered by ISIS

Former members of ISIS and their families detained in camps and prisons in northeastern Syria mean “a ticking bomb” for European security, the EU’s new counter-terrorism chief reported recently. Ilkka Salmi, the new counter-terrorism coordinator, provided for the first time at the European Parliament’s Subcommittee on Security and Defense a detailed speech related to the most concerning threats in Europe. Salmi pointed out that in order to improve the humanitarian situation, the EU must support Syrian and Iraqi refugee camp residents to reintegrate into local communities.

Also, Salami emphasized that the consequences of the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan led to the conclusion that the EU had to prevent the infiltration of terrorists “through the development of a common procedure for systematic and timely security checks of biographical data, for instance, against all the relevant EU and internal databases.” Salmi also warned that they “might have a not insignificant number of Afghans” evacuated by the U.S. and now waiting in Kosovo, who could pose security concerns for the EU.

According to sources and recent events, jihadist terrorism constitutes the greatest threat to Europe. The Islamic State looks for Europeans to join them in developing future attacks. Overall, more attacks were reported in 2020 than in 2019. Ten attacks occurred in 2020, resulting in 12 deaths and traumatizing nearly 47 people. In addition, lone-actor-jihadist terrorists, often linked with larger terrorist groups, have organized several attacks over the last seven years.

The Repatriation of Children and Women in 2021

On October 28, 2021, the United Kingdom repatriated three British children from detention camps in northeast Syria, according to Rights & Security International (RSI). Although the repatriation of the children was highly important, RSI demanded to have a more organized plan for the return of all the British children, their parents, and their caregivers.

Sweden is one of the highest-ranked countries in Europe for individuals participating in ISIS. The beginning of the repatriation process resulted in confusion and panic as several Swedish relatives searched to bring their relatives home. The Kurdish government organized a solution by bringing everyone back to their roots. However, it was a temporary relief and has not been repeated since.

Throughout 2021, Belgium and Finland repatriated children via organized methods. Since then, Russia, Uzbekistan, and Kosovo have also completed a safe return for women and children previously held in the Syrian camps.

Germany has returned eight women and 23 children from a camp in northern Syria who participated in the Islamic State.  According to German officials, they were brought back in a joint operation with Denmark, in which three women and 14 children were returned.

Most of the European members of the Islamic State were usually held in Kurdish camps in northern Syria. In March 2019, most of the European Islamic State members were exiled in Kurdish camps since the fall of ISIS. Overall, the German Foreign Ministry announced in October that women and children had arrived at Frankfurt Airport from the Roy Prison Camp in northeastern Syria.

After approximately two years of indifference to the circumstances in the repatriation of children and women in Syria, the time has come for the European states to take drastic measures in order to process their repatriation.

 

Katerina Rebecca Paraskeva, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Bashar al-Assad

Bashar al-Assad’s Impact on Syria

Bashar al-Assad has been Syria’s president for the last 21 years, since he took power on July 17th, 2000. This year, on May 26th, Bashar Al-Assad was elected again to be Syria’s president for seven more years. He won the election with an overwhelming majority of 95.1% of the votes.

The Re-election

Bashar al-Assad assumed control after the death of his father Hafez in 2000. Over the course of 21 years, most of al-Assad’s service was associated with death and horror because of the many battles with opposition groups.

During the bloody civil war, al-Assad is blameworthy for demolishing cities and for the captures and deaths of his opponents. He created a climate of horror; if individuals wanted to survive, they needed to escape the country.  Thousands of people have died, over 5.5 million have become refugees, and approximately 6.2 million were internally exiled.

Bashar al-Assad has been re-elected a total of four times. He has been proclaimed the victor on each occasion with close to 100% of the vote. However, al-Assad has done nothing to solve Syria’s long-standing challenges, particularly the country’s dysfunctional economy and politics, which finally led to an uprising in 2011.

The earliest protests against Syria’s government in 2011 were aimed at achieving political and economic changes. Soon after, organized Islamist groups seized control. As increasingly radical groups hijacked the Syrian chapter of the Arab uprising, the people who started the Syrian revolution were left with little hope.

There is still no chance for democracy eleven years later, and no one believes the al-Assad government’s assertion that his electoral triumph reflects the desires of the Syrian people.

The Support to ISIS

Even as the al-Assad regime fought to reclaim control of Syrian territory from the various rebel groups involved in the Syrian civil war, including ISIS, Bashar al-Assad’s regime constantly supported the Islamic State, even while the group controlled substantial amounts of territory.

The regime’s plan included directing its military operations against moderate Syrian rebel organizations opposed to the al-Assad dictatorship, particularly the Free Syrian Army, rather than the Islamic State. Any important choices would almost always include al-Assad, and government officials feared the ramifications of making sensitive decisions without al-Assad’s permission.

Without previous decision-making at the highest levels of the Syrian government, it is unimaginable that Syrian intelligence could have helped, enabled, or tolerated ISIS operations. In order to portray all Syrian opposition members as “terrorists,” the Syrian regime took this deliberate choice to permit and promote the Islamic State’s prolonged survival in Syria.

The Financial Resources Syria provided to ISIS

The Syrian regime also helped ISIS financially by allowing Syrian banks to operate and provide financial services in ISIS-controlled areas. A report in February of 2015 by The Financial Action Task Force, a multinational organization that develops and promotes policies to combat illicit financial activities, found that “more than 20 Syrian financial institutions with operations in ISIS-held territory” continued to do business. Furthermore, according to the report, these bank branches were “connected to their headquarters in Damascus; and some of them may preserve linkages to the international financial system.”

Even when these unlawful terror-funding conduits were publicly disclosed, the al-Assad regime disregarded and permitted ISIS to undertake financial transactions through informal banking networks.

For example, the U.S. Treasury Department identified a number of ISIS’s financial facilitators and money service organizations in April, September, and November of 2019 for aiding ISIS activities in Syria and elsewhere. On the other hand, the Syrian government took no action against the publicly identified ISIS financial middlemen, who continued to operate unhindered.

Final Thoughts

ISIS remains an insurgency threat in Syria and an international threat as a terrorist organization. However, there is no clear global coalition, political or military, to counter the threat posed by the al-Assad dictatorship, which has murdered far more people than ISIS, enabled the terrorist group’s activities, and created massive population displacement, migratory flows, and regional instability.

The international community rose to the challenge of ISIS. However, it has failed horribly in addressing the al-Assad government’s multiple issues, much alone the tragedy that is the al-Assad dictatorship.

The U.S. must lead a renewed diplomatic attempt to deal with Syria’s current situation. Although any agreement should be consistent with the UN’s formal role, only Washington D.C. could organize the anti-Assad alliance’s various members. The U.S. should strategize to urge political compromises to achieve the safe return of refugees and ensure globally monitored resettlement efforts.

 

Katerina Rebecca Paraskeva, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Syria

The Escalation of Terrorism in Syria

Syria is one of the countries severely impacted by terrorism. It is widely known that Syria is afflicted by suffering, as terrorists have attacked innocent people, obliterated foundations, plundered Syria’s assets, and generated a humanitarian catastrophe throughout the country. Since 1979, Syria has been exposed to terrorist attacks, which persist today.

The Escalation of Terrorism

In 1979, Syria was designated as a State Sponsor of Terrorism and proceeded its political and military bolster to aid several terrorist groups. Over the last few years, Syria has captivated global audiences due to its counter-terrorism endeavors. The unexpected and terrifying rise of ISIS in 2014 drew worldwide attention to Syria. In a few weeks, the broadest transnational alliance in global history was deployed to set in motion a counterattack against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The jihadist group, after five years, referring to themselves as “caliphate,” had been demolished. Whereas announcements of ISIS’s overcome were certainly untimely, a worldwide approach and consideration on countering fear-based oppression in Syria has since declined, as if to suggest that the work is exhausted.

In fact, as 2020 began, the world appeared to misunderstand counter-terrorism efforts in Syria, since the danger of ISIS could be long from over. ISIS holds thousands of warriors in Syria and maintains an unfaltering pace of agitators and fear-based oppressor assaults east of the Euphrates. More worryingly, ISIS appears to be developing strength and capacity west of the Euphrates. This is also where Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad and his local army accomplices generally appear unable to contain and overcome ISIS’s exercises.

The Current Situation in Syria

In 2021, according to military officials, over 14 soldiers were killed and three were injured in a bomb assault on a bus with armed forces in Damascus, the capital of Syria. Immediately after the attack, the army fired on a rebel state in Idlib, killing 12 people, according to rescue workers. The bombing of Damascus was the deadliest the capital has experienced in recent years. This was an infrequent incident, considering that the government’s army conquered the suburbs once owned by the opposition’s fighters after a decade of conflict in Syria.

Ultimately, 2021 has been one of the hardest years for Syria. Over the years, the accumulation of wars and terrorism has led to a crucial economic crisis and an enormous reduction of food resources. Therefore, the United States should adjust its policies and reflect on the current situation in Syria.

In 2021, the armed conflict in Syria has passed a ten-year milestone. At the present moment, the conflict has outstretched into a violent and ongoing deadlock, with several different and simultaneous armed conflicts overlapping with regional security concerns regarding Turkey, Iran, Israel, Kurds, and jihadist activities.

While the United Nations-led process has had difficulties progressing, Western nations have withdrawn their involvement, and some Arab nations are looking for ways to realign with Assad’s regime.

Conclusions and Suggestions

Syria’s attacks have resulted in a humanitarian disaster with dramatic repercussions for the country, neighboring states, and in general, globally. Approximately 500,000 people didn’t survive the attacks, and over 13 million have abandoned their homes.

Since 2015, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) has played an important role in supporting people and building peace. USIP has likewise supported common society associations, informed policymakers, helped refugees in Syria’s neighboring states, and ultimately promoted peace.

In order to have critical outcomes, an organized effort is needed to help Syria diminish terrorism and conquer peace. Global support is needed to defeat the terrorist attacks. However, international counter-terrorism cooperation faces many obstacles, from geostrategic rivalries to the ubiquitous double standards and the influence of domestic politics at the time.

Regarding the current conditions in Syria, it is vital for Assad and his compatriots to be expelled. Today’s government supports the continuation of conflict to maintain its power. Although this eviction is needed for the same reasons, it remains a very complex operation.

Overall, the major concerns that make Syria a fertile ground for terrorism include the regime’s security drift, Islamist terrorism’s resilience, and recent demographic changes in some regions profiting Shias. Europe should enact guidelines to support Syria, such as providing aid to refugees, rebuilding regions attacked by ISIS, and providing solutions for future conflicts between neighboring states.

 

Katerina Rebecca Paraskeva, Counter-Terrorism Research Fellow

Rise to Peace